Who's betting on “Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $43K traded all time
- Held now
- $13K by 109 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 71% 56 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 72% 53 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 88¢, an 88% implied chance of No. $43K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
71% of the money on Yes and 72% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 15 points.
Who holds it
109 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 109 of them. The largest Yes holder is bmtr, with $244 on it, $16K lifetime profit over 232 markets (63% won). The largest No holder is iutwpfal, with $2.4K on it, $97K lifetime profit over 362 markets (53% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.5K on No.
- Holders
- 56
- Money on it
- $1.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
- Holders
- 53
- Money on it
- $11K
- Holders' win rate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1.5K
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.6K on it
- 1bmtr63% won of 232 · balanced$244+$16K lifetime
- 2m33zy52% won of 265 · balanced$219+$1.8K lifetime
- 3macrosteaks64% won of 2,614$159−$8.2K lifetime
- 4hellovinci187% won of 146 · balanced$133+$184 lifetime
- 5MineYours53% won of 145 · whale$125+$4.7K lifetime
No$11K on it
- 1iutwpfal53% won of 362 · whale$2.4K+$97K lifetime
- 2tja73% won of 1,032 · sniper$1.5K+$143K lifetime
- 3Contentious-Dinnerdate67% won of 1,087 · whale$1.4K+$104K lifetime
- 4dedidanc67% won of 267$1.1K−$5.3K lifetime
- 5Hannah-Montana64% won of 338$994−$7.8K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
6 more- Meta$26K vol.Yes 8%No 93%Smart money: Yes
- DeepSeek$26K vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- Moonshot$15K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Mistral$13K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- xAI$11K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: No
- Google$46K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$925K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$897K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$886K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$457K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?"?
109 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 109 of them. The largest Yes holder is bmtr, with $244 on it, $16K lifetime profit over 232 markets (63% won). The largest No holder is iutwpfal, with $2.4K on it, $97K lifetime profit over 362 markets (53% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 88¢, an 88% implied chance of No. $43K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
71% of the money on Yes and 72% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 15 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.