Who's betting on “Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?”?
Smart money leans No: 92% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 30 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $155K traded all time
- Held now
- $45K by 192 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 62% 98 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 92% 94 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $155K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
62% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 30 points. A week ago, No by 14 points.
Who holds it
192 wallets hold a position worth $45K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 192 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xf27de6607Cbd19be1133619B9807ff63Fb86e6d, with $430 on it, $31K lifetime profit over 312 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is elmcap2, with $14K on it, $2.1M lifetime profit over 1,097 markets (86% won).
- Holders
- 98
- Money on it
- $1.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 61%
- Holders
- 94
- Money on it
- $43K
- Holders' win rate
- 81%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.9K on it
- 10xf27de6607Cbd19be1133619B9807ff63Fb86e6d65% won of 312 · whale$430+$31K lifetime
- 20x3f50F8c01741dB355B2E7623EA2CD2C1a389460b-17811110117350% won of 1$341−$295 lifetime
- 3bernardbulletin75% won of 1,124 · whale$305+$198K lifetime
- 4outcomes42% won of 234 · noise$103+$15K lifetime
- 5moneymakingmachine58% won of 1,109$97−$12K lifetime
No$43K on it
- 1elmcap286% won of 1,097 · whale$14K+$2.1M lifetime
- 2Anjun67% won of 1,886 · whale$6.7K+$801K lifetime
- 30x8b71010f8D18CccE16a37434778117EE2d6b8044-173510588978579% won of 94 · whale$5.2K+$55K lifetime
- 40x919d…60e181% won of 892 · whale$2.5K+$9.8K lifetime
- 5highlows92% won of 74 · grinder$2.4K+$2.0K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
13 more- Elon Musk$55K vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money split
- Ryan Salame$35K vol.Yes 21%No 79%Smart money: No
- Diddy$34K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
- Martin Shkreli$32K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Ghislaine Maxwell$30K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- Derek Chauvin$30K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Himself$25K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Do Kwon$24K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Keonne Rodriguez$20K vol.Yes 8%No 93%Smart money: Yes
- Donald Brodie$18K vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money split
- Steve Bannon$13K vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: Yes
- Roger Stone$12K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Nicolas Maduro$11K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: Yes
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?"?
192 wallets hold a position worth $45K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 192 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xf27de6607Cbd19be1133619B9807ff63Fb86e6d, with $430 on it, $31K lifetime profit over 312 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is elmcap2, with $14K on it, $2.1M lifetime profit over 1,097 markets (86% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $155K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
62% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 30 points. A week ago, No by 14 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.