Who's betting on “Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $55K traded all time
- Held now
- $2.7K by 78 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 74% 39 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 78% 39 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $55K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
74% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 51 points.
Who holds it
78 wallets hold a position worth $2.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 78 of them. The largest Yes holder is M888, with $124 on it, $255K lifetime profit over 1,027 markets (69% won). The largest No holder is 0x8931…a90c, with $715 on it, $29K lifetime profit over 609 markets (95% won).
- Holders
- 39
- Money on it
- $237
- Holders' win rate
- 61%
- Holders
- 39
- Money on it
- $2.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 69%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$237 on it
- 1M88869% won of 1,027 · whale$124+$255K lifetime
- 275767755% won of 1,005$19−$426 lifetime
- 3joaoventura15k80% won of 5$10−$102 lifetime
- 4LornaPredicts28% won of 15,827 · noise$9+$27K lifetime
- 5orin4028% won of 356 · noise$9+$1.0K lifetime
No$2.5K on it
- 10x8931…a90c95% won of 609 · whale$715+$29K lifetime
- 2RebeccaHolder741042% won of 113$247−$73 lifetime
- 3Jest5573% won of 1,084 · whale$217+$145K lifetime
- 4aviato80% won of 1,340 · whale$136+$201K lifetime
- 5AliciaBrown562256% won of 200 · balanced$103+$539 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
13 more- Sam Bankman-Fried$155K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Ryan Salame$35K vol.Yes 21%No 79%Smart money: No
- Diddy$34K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
- Martin Shkreli$32K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Ghislaine Maxwell$30K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- Derek Chauvin$30K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Himself$25K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Do Kwon$24K vol.Yes 4%No 97%Smart money: No
- Keonne Rodriguez$20K vol.Yes 8%No 93%Smart money: Yes
- Donald Brodie$18K vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money split
- Steve Bannon$13K vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: Yes
- Roger Stone$12K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Nicolas Maduro$11K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: Yes
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
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- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?"?
78 wallets hold a position worth $2.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 78 of them. The largest Yes holder is M888, with $124 on it, $255K lifetime profit over 1,027 markets (69% won). The largest No holder is 0x8931…a90c, with $715 on it, $29K lifetime profit over 609 markets (95% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $55K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
74% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 51 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.