Who's betting on “Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?”?
Politics · $3.5M volume · Ends October 28, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $3.5M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 28, 2026.
41% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 37 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 36 points. A week ago, No by 35 points.
1,141 wallets hold a position worth $332K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,120 of them. The largest Yes holder is nicolemayer, with $1.7K on it, $241 lifetime profit over 15 markets (47% won). The largest No holder is scottilicious, with $60K on it, $1.5M lifetime profit over 1,009 markets (83% won).
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.1K on No.
- Smart money share
- 41%
- Holders
- 527
- Money on it
- $20K
- Holders' winrate
- 61%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 78%
- Holders
- 614
- Money on it
- $312K
- Holders' winrate
- 80%
- Snipers
- 2 · $1.1K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| nicolemayer | $1.7K | +$241 | 47% of 15 |
| pilimili | $960 | -$249K | 78% of 213 |
| RayZehavi | $732 | -$1.1K | 0% of 1 |
| Insidepolitics | $574 | +$0 | - |
| 0xEA0D70b12e2fDBB32353C9675fA9A81FF3515866-1773703901674 | $505 | -$21K | 71% of 173 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| scottiliciouswhale | $60K | +$1.5M | 83% of 1,009 |
| afdafdafdafdafd | $42K | -$86K | 71% of 318 |
| thoodrwhale | $40K | +$91K | 96% of 810 |
| SuperFakewhale | $21K | +$1.0K | 82% of 1,070 |
| Valen9whale | $20K | +$233K | 62% of 895 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Benjamin Netanyahu$11M vol.Yes 28%No 73%Smart money: No
- Naftali Bennett$4.1M vol.Yes 14%No 86%Smart money: No
- Yossi Cohen$3.7M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Gadi Eizenkot$3.6M vol.Yes 52%No 48%Smart money split
- Amir Ohana$2.8M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Yair Golan$2.7M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Gideon Sa’ar$2.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Benny Gantz$2.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Moshe Feiglin$2.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Ayelet Shaked$2.1M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Yariv Levin$2.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Yair Lapid$2.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Itamar Ben Gvir$1.9M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Nir Barkat$1.8M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Yoaz Hendel$1.7M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Israel Katz$1.1M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Gilad Erdan$834K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Ofer Winter$517K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
Who's betting on Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? →
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$75M vol.Yes 21%No 80%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?"?
1,141 wallets hold a position worth $332K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,120 of them. The largest Yes holder is nicolemayer, with $1.7K on it, $241 lifetime profit over 15 markets (47% won). The largest No holder is scottilicious, with $60K on it, $1.5M lifetime profit over 1,009 markets (83% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $3.5M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 28, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
41% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 37 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 36 points. A week ago, No by 35 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 28, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.