Who's betting on “Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska and Texas?”?
Polkyo has not scored enough holders on both sides yet to say where the smart money sits. It fills in as people trade.
- Volume
- $367K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.6K by 67 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- - 58 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- - 8 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $367K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
The smart money
One side holds too little money from wallets with a record (under $5K) to compare where the profitable money sits; Polkyo shows no lean until both sides have enough.
Who holds it
67 wallets hold a position worth $4.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 66 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $3.0K on it, $11M lifetime profit over 719 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is qwen300.fund, with $379 on it, $577K lifetime profit over 157,156 markets (33% won).
- Holders
- 58
- Money on it
- $3.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 80%
- Holders
- 9
- Money on it
- $823
- Holders' win rate
- 43%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$3.8K on it
- 1BreakTheBank88% won of 719 · whale$3.0K+$11M lifetime
- 2SnapElectionAvoider47% won of 2,523 · whale$304+$232K lifetime
- 3anciano49% won of 1,557 · whale$116+$48K lifetime
- 40x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-175993579546548% won of 6,745 · whale$98+$5.9M lifetime
- 5balthazar53% won of 64,084 · whale$62+$1.2M lifetime
No$823 on it
- 1qwen300.fund33% won of 157,156 · noise$379+$577K lifetime
- 20x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-179332286317929% won of 7,975 · outlier$166+$6.9K lifetime
- 3poposub48% won of 1,984 · whale$107+$10K lifetime
- 4WhoseHouseRamsHouse96% won of 955$100−$29K lifetime
- 5cigarettes46% won of 57,013$60−$117K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
24 more- None$8.4M vol.Yes 87%No 14%Smart money: No
- IA, KS$3.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- IA$3.2M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money split
- AK, IA, KS, MI, TX$2.6M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK$1.0M vol.Yes 5%No 95%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA$947K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, KS, MI$862K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, ME$861K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- MI$770K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- AK, IA, ME, MI, TX$745K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, ME$736K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, KS, MI, TX$732K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, KS, MI$693K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, KS$681K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, KS, ME, MI, TX$679K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, KS, ME$665K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, KS, MI, OH, TX$661K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- KS, MI, TX$618K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- KS, MI$600K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, ME, MI$579K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- ME$577K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money split
- AK, KS, ME, OH$574K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, OH$563K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, MI, OH, TX$560K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$77M vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$46M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska and Texas?"?
67 wallets hold a position worth $4.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 66 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $3.0K on it, $11M lifetime profit over 719 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is qwen300.fund, with $379 on it, $577K lifetime profit over 157,156 markets (33% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska and Texas?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $367K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
One side holds too little money from wallets with a record (under $5K) to compare where the profitable money sits; Polkyo shows no lean until both sides have enough.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 3, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.