Who's betting on “Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 68% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 13 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $142K traded all time
- Held now
- $16K by 184 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 56% 97 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 68% 86 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 90¢ and No at 10¢, a 90% implied chance of Yes. $142K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
56% of the money on Yes and 68% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 13 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 8 points.
Who holds it
184 wallets hold a position worth $16K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 183 of them. The largest Yes holder is suntori, with $1.9K on it, $12M lifetime loss over 71,590 markets (47% won). The largest No holder is gambler925, with $147 on it, $6.7K lifetime profit over 535 markets (51% won).
- Holders
- 98
- Money on it
- $15K
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
- Holders
- 86
- Money on it
- $876
- Holders' win rate
- 58%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$15K on it
- 1suntori47% won of 71,590$1.9K−$12M lifetime
- 2mamai59% won of 664$1.9K−$30K lifetime
- 3Waterfall80% won of 319 · whale$1.9K+$22K lifetime
- 40xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,148 · noise$833+$334K lifetime
- 5K80PRO56% won of 859$690−$767 lifetime
No$876 on it
- 1gambler92551% won of 535 · whale$147+$6.7K lifetime
- 2abccbaq83% won of 224 · whale$90+$31K lifetime
- 3prodset52% won of 445 · balanced$67+$1.2K lifetime
- 40x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-176165628427162% won of 6,187 · whale$64+$64K lifetime
- 5xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,171 · noise$53+$254K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
11 more- October 29$24K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- October 31$18K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- October 28$14K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- October 30$12K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- October 27$45K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- October 20$36K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- October 22$28K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- October 24$15K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- October 25$14K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- October 21$14K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- October 26$11K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$925K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$897K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$885K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$456K vol.Yes 42%No 59%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?"?
184 wallets hold a position worth $16K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 183 of them. The largest Yes holder is suntori, with $1.9K on it, $12M lifetime loss over 71,590 markets (47% won). The largest No holder is gambler925, with $147 on it, $6.7K lifetime profit over 535 markets (51% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 90¢ and No at 10¢, a 90% implied chance of Yes. $142K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
56% of the money on Yes and 68% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 13 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 8 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.