Who's betting on “Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 87% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 11 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $18K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.6K by 48 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 76% 36 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 87% 11 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $18K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
76% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 10 points.
Who holds it
48 wallets hold a position worth $1.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 47 of them. The largest Yes holder is 50cents, with $89 on it, $5.8K lifetime profit over 414 markets (35% won). The largest No holder is lightsout912, with $497 on it, $3.5K lifetime profit over 273 markets (81% won).
- Holders
- 37
- Money on it
- $349
- Holders' win rate
- 40%
- Holders
- 11
- Money on it
- $1.2K
- Holders' win rate
- 79%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$349 on it
- 150cents35% won of 414 · noise$89+$5.8K lifetime
- 2Martinus-50% won of 131 · balanced$78+$521 lifetime
- 3The🐐39% won of 187$61−$697 lifetime
- 40x16c7337106A0B3a06fF863A1c06D8e2cbf7322cd-17788119432439% won of 32,955 · noise$32+$25K lifetime
- 50x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393842% won of 9,618 · whale$11+$127K lifetime
No$1.2K on it
- 1lightsout91281% won of 273 · balanced$497+$3.5K lifetime
- 2Waterfall80% won of 319 · whale$442+$22K lifetime
- 3Pipouuuuuuu87% won of 70$152−$10 lifetime
- 4balthazar53% won of 52,319 · whale$90+$1.2M lifetime
- 5Bigloups81% won of 37 · balanced$20+$9 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
11 more- No release by October 31$142K vol.Yes 90%No 10%Smart money: No
- October 29$24K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- October 28$14K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- October 30$12K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- October 27$45K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- October 20$36K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- October 22$28K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- October 24$15K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- October 25$14K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- October 21$14K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- October 26$11K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$925K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$897K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$885K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$456K vol.Yes 42%No 59%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 31, 2026?"?
48 wallets hold a position worth $1.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 47 of them. The largest Yes holder is 50cents, with $89 on it, $5.8K lifetime profit over 414 markets (35% won). The largest No holder is lightsout912, with $497 on it, $3.5K lifetime profit over 273 markets (81% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $18K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
76% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 10 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.