Who's betting on “Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?”?
Smart money leans No: 73% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 25 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $59K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.5K by 104 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 48% 57 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 73% 47 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $59K has been traded on it.
The smart money
48% of the money on Yes and 73% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 21 points. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
104 wallets hold a position worth $3.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 104 of them. The largest Yes holder is dedidanc, with $74 on it, $5.3K lifetime loss over 267 markets (67% won). The largest No holder is libratus1, with $1.1K on it, $60K lifetime profit over 208 markets (83% won).
- Holders
- 57
- Money on it
- $460
- Holders' win rate
- 58%
- Holders
- 47
- Money on it
- $3.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 68%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$460 on it
- 1dedidanc67% won of 267$74−$5.3K lifetime
- 20x89759AD8ff64cA16506F24Cbb0eFf6dDD266dCFE-176341453313363% won of 170$63−$78 lifetime
- 3troim66% won of 819 · whale$53+$90K lifetime
- 4rewardbots58% won of 354 · whale$36+$76K lifetime
- 50x8Df92602EC9c454E8099D9dc4A3F0d21DaA0468C-176685531788349% won of 265 · whale$26+$26K lifetime
No$3.0K on it
- 1libratus183% won of 208 · whale$1.1K+$60K lifetime
- 2cigarettes46% won of 49,066$395−$49K lifetime
- 3ifyouloveme49% won of 512 · whale$181+$17K lifetime
- 4Jesetrading76% won of 274 · balanced$174+$6.1K lifetime
- 5BetterFish61% won of 740 · whale$174+$35K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
5 more- 1490+$80K vol.Yes 20%No 80%Smart money: Yes
- 1480+$69K vol.Yes 19%No 81%Smart money: No
- 1500+$66K vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- 1495+$58K vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: No
- 1470+$11K vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: No
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$925K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$897K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$885K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$456K vol.Yes 42%No 59%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?"?
104 wallets hold a position worth $3.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 104 of them. The largest Yes holder is dedidanc, with $74 on it, $5.3K lifetime loss over 267 markets (67% won). The largest No holder is libratus1, with $1.1K on it, $60K lifetime profit over 208 markets (83% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $59K has been traded on it.
Which side is the smart money on?
48% of the money on Yes and 73% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 21 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
Polymarket has not set an end date for it.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.