Who's betting on “Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?”?
Smart money leans No: 98% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 12 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $66K traded all time
- Held now
- $7.4K by 119 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 86% 55 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 98% 64 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 18¢ and No at 83¢, an 83% implied chance of No. $66K has been traded on it.
The smart money
86% of the money on Yes and 98% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 12 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 12 points. A week ago, No by 8 points.
Who holds it
119 wallets hold a position worth $7.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 119 of them. The largest Yes holder is MineYours, with $615 on it, $4.7K lifetime profit over 145 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is cat6767, with $2.8K on it, $9.5K lifetime profit over 212 markets (70% won).
Sharp money
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $717 on No.
- Holders
- 55
- Money on it
- $1.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 54%
- Holders
- 64
- Money on it
- $6.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 64%
- Snipers
- 2 · $717
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.3K on it
- 1MineYours53% won of 145 · whale$615+$4.7K lifetime
- 2xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,242 · noise$134+$255K lifetime
- 3troim66% won of 819 · whale$88+$90K lifetime
- 4shiifoo52% won of 4,738 · whale$81+$46K lifetime
- 5Xeny61% won of 250 · whale$68+$106K lifetime
No$6.1K on it
- 1cat676770% won of 212 · whale$2.8K+$9.5K lifetime
- 2Djibooty53% won of 236 · whale$844+$1.7K lifetime
- 30x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-177846773587665% won of 284 · whale$420+$27K lifetime
- 4tja73% won of 1,032 · sniper$417+$143K lifetime
- 5JokerTheClown67% won of 1,703 · sniper$299+$95K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
5 more- 1490+$80K vol.Yes 20%No 80%Smart money: Yes
- 1480+$69K vol.Yes 19%No 81%Smart money: No
- 1510+$59K vol.Yes 13%No 87%Smart money: No
- 1495+$58K vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: No
- 1470+$11K vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$925K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$897K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$885K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$456K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?"?
119 wallets hold a position worth $7.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 119 of them. The largest Yes holder is MineYours, with $615 on it, $4.7K lifetime profit over 145 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is cat6767, with $2.8K on it, $9.5K lifetime profit over 212 markets (70% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 18¢ and No at 83¢, an 83% implied chance of No. $66K has been traded on it.
Which side is the smart money on?
86% of the money on Yes and 98% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 12 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 12 points. A week ago, No by 8 points.
When does this market end?
Polymarket has not set an end date for it.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.