Who's betting on “Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 61% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 26 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $80K traded all time
- Held now
- $5.4K by 160 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 61% 88 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 35% 71 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 20¢ and No at 80¢, an 80% implied chance of No. $80K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
61% of the money on Yes and 35% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 26 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 27 points. A week ago, Yes by 17 points.
Who holds it
160 wallets hold a position worth $5.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 159 of them. The largest Yes holder is SlayerH, with $127 on it, $4.8K lifetime loss over 214 markets (36% won). The largest No holder is sobaka.yebaka, with $722 on it, $23K lifetime loss over 207 markets (75% won).
- Holders
- 88
- Money on it
- $1.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 49%
- Holders
- 72
- Money on it
- $4.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 64%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.1K on it
- 1SlayerH36% won of 214$127−$4.8K lifetime
- 20xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,148 · noise$120+$334K lifetime
- 3Dav1d1030% won of 10$64+$118 lifetime
- 4balthazar53% won of 52,414 · whale$56+$1.2M lifetime
- 5MEPP62% won of 1,084 · whale$49+$559K lifetime
No$4.3K on it
- 1sobaka.yebaka75% won of 207$722−$23K lifetime
- 2pizdi.bolyu80% won of 620$581−$49K lifetime
- 3Contentious-Dinnerdate67% won of 1,087 · whale$530+$104K lifetime
- 4dedidanc67% won of 267$497−$5.3K lifetime
- 50x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-177846773587665% won of 284 · whale$318+$27K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
5 more- 1480+$69K vol.Yes 19%No 81%Smart money: No
- 1500+$66K vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- 1510+$59K vol.Yes 13%No 87%Smart money: No
- 1495+$58K vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: No
- 1470+$11K vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$925K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$897K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$885K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$456K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?"?
160 wallets hold a position worth $5.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 159 of them. The largest Yes holder is SlayerH, with $127 on it, $4.8K lifetime loss over 214 markets (36% won). The largest No holder is sobaka.yebaka, with $722 on it, $23K lifetime loss over 207 markets (75% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 20¢ and No at 80¢, an 80% implied chance of No. $80K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
61% of the money on Yes and 35% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 26 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 27 points. A week ago, Yes by 17 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.