Who's betting on “Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?”?
Smart money leans No: 95% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 34 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $69K traded all time
- Held now
- $8.9K by 131 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 61% 87 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 95% 44 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 19¢ and No at 81¢, an 81% implied chance of No. $69K has been traded on it.
The smart money
61% of the money on Yes and 95% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 34 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 32 points. A week ago, No by 29 points.
Who holds it
131 wallets hold a position worth $8.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 131 of them. The largest Yes holder is balthazar, with $366 on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 52,414 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is lamyk, with $3.8K on it, $20K lifetime profit over 320 markets (59% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.1K on No.
- Holders
- 87
- Money on it
- $1.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 46%
- Holders
- 44
- Money on it
- $7.2K
- Holders' win rate
- 58%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1.1K
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.7K on it
- 1balthazar53% won of 52,414 · whale$366+$1.2M lifetime
- 2longdated-poli3% won of 3,448$206−$64K lifetime
- 3cigarettes46% won of 49,151$117−$48K lifetime
- 4hfv42% won of 44,595$84−$143K lifetime
- 5chaosj8877% won of 410 · whale$62+$22K lifetime
No$7.2K on it
- 1lamyk59% won of 320 · balanced$3.8K+$20K lifetime
- 2JokerTheClown67% won of 1,703 · sniper$1.1K+$95K lifetime
- 3iutwpfal53% won of 362 · whale$536+$97K lifetime
- 4ifyouloveme49% won of 512 · whale$303+$17K lifetime
- 50x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-177846773587665% won of 284 · whale$211+$27K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
5 more- 1490+$80K vol.Yes 20%No 80%Smart money: Yes
- 1500+$66K vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- 1510+$59K vol.Yes 13%No 87%Smart money: No
- 1495+$58K vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: No
- 1470+$11K vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$925K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$897K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$885K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$456K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?"?
131 wallets hold a position worth $8.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 131 of them. The largest Yes holder is balthazar, with $366 on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 52,414 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is lamyk, with $3.8K on it, $20K lifetime profit over 320 markets (59% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 19¢ and No at 81¢, an 81% implied chance of No. $69K has been traded on it.
Which side is the smart money on?
61% of the money on Yes and 95% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 34 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 32 points. A week ago, No by 29 points.
When does this market end?
Polymarket has not set an end date for it.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.