Who's betting on “Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 71% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 37 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $11K traded all time
- Held now
- $42 by 55 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 71% 45 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 34% 10 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $11K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
71% of the money on Yes and 34% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 37 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 37 points. A week ago, Yes by 23 points.
Who holds it
55 wallets hold a position worth $42 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 55 of them. The largest Yes holder is PeterEriksson, with $13 on it, $7.0K lifetime profit over 220 markets (55% won). The largest No holder is Brunomars, with $4 on it, $147 lifetime loss over 195 markets (75% won).
- Holders
- 45
- Money on it
- $35
- Holders' win rate
- 48%
- Holders
- 10
- Money on it
- $8
- Holders' win rate
- 79%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$35 on it
- 1PeterEriksson55% won of 220 · balanced$13+$7.0K lifetime
- 2wavesinthesky20% won of 296$7−$1.7K lifetime
- 3xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,511 · noise$3+$254K lifetime
- 4b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.98% won of 3,389 · whale$1+$22K lifetime
- 50x34a42279AD52% won of 200 · whale$1+$2.5K lifetime
No$8 on it
- 1Brunomars75% won of 195$4−$147 lifetime
- 20x539b…c64f99% won of 558 · grinder$1+$75 lifetime
- 3moonrise-clump73% won of 211$1−$1 lifetime
- 4bulbnbob82% won of 266 · whale$1+$6.3K lifetime
- 5smallreceipt27% won of 24,286 · noise$0+$67K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
6 more- None in 2026$29K vol.Yes 66%No 34%Smart money: No
- Anthropic$21K vol.Yes 17%No 83%Smart money: No
- Google$16K vol.Yes 22%No 78%Smart money: Yes
- OpenAI$16K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
- DeepSeek$14K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Alibaba$11K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$1.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$898K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$888K vol.Yes 98%No 2%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$459K vol.Yes 39%No 62%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?"?
55 wallets hold a position worth $42 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 55 of them. The largest Yes holder is PeterEriksson, with $13 on it, $7.0K lifetime profit over 220 markets (55% won). The largest No holder is Brunomars, with $4 on it, $147 lifetime loss over 195 markets (75% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $11K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
71% of the money on Yes and 34% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 37 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 37 points. A week ago, Yes by 23 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.