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Who's betting on “Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?”?

Tech$11K traded62 holdersEnds January 1, 2027Updated October 29, 2026
0%Yes🧠 smart money
100%No

Smart money leans Yes: 64% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 25 points ahead of the other side.

Volume
$11K
traded all time
Held now
$29
by 62 wallets
Smart share · Yes
64%
56 scored holders
Smart share · No
40%
6 scored holders
📈 Open the live signal🔔 Alert me when smart money moves

What the money says

The odds

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $11K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.

The smart money

64% of the money on Yes and 40% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 25 points. A week ago, No by 33 points.

Who holds it

62 wallets hold a position worth $29 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 62 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x3621459f3C3fDD97Fd2Fd2AfC1E87cF199b09dA2-1778404718800, with $6 on it, $279 lifetime profit over 125 markets (71% won). The largest No holder is moonrise-clump, with $5 on it, $1 lifetime loss over 211 markets (73% won).

Yes0%
🧠 Smart money leans here
Smart money share64%
7 days ago 66%a day ago 65%now 64%
Holders
56
Money on it
$21
Holders' win rate
52%
No100%
Smart money share40%
7 days ago 100%a day ago 40%now 40%
Holders
6
Money on it
$8
Holders' win rate
76%

The biggest holders on each side

with their lifetime records

Yes$21 on it

  1. 10x3621459f3C3fDD97Fd2Fd2AfC1E87cF199b09dA2-177840471880071% won of 125 · balanced$6+$279 lifetime
  2. 2wavesinthesky20% won of 296$3−$1.7K lifetime
  3. 3xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,511 · noise$1+$254K lifetime
  4. 42kparabellum90% won of 154$1−$99 lifetime
  5. 5niggabutt41% won of 79$1−$3.5K lifetime

No$8 on it

  1. 1moonrise-clump73% won of 211$5−$1 lifetime
  2. 2bulbnbob82% won of 266 · whale$3+$6.3K lifetime
  3. 3Haradwaith50% won of 54,248$0−$378K lifetime
  4. 4mustbethewater45% won of 27,645 · whale$0+$74K lifetime
  5. 513klklas35% won of 241 · noise$0+$206 lifetime
Every holder on both sides, scored, on the live signal →
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See what the smart money does next, as it happens.

The live signalEvery holder scored, the smart-money chart since it was first tracked, and the order book.Alerts on this marketStar it and hear when it moves, or when a whale or a proven wallet goes in.Watch trades on SonarEvery Polymarket trade of $50+, live, as an ocean.AI Edge ScannerWhere Polkyo's model and the price disagree, after costs.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?"?

62 wallets hold a position worth $29 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 62 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x3621459f3C3fDD97Fd2Fd2AfC1E87cF199b09dA2-1778404718800, with $6 on it, $279 lifetime profit over 125 markets (71% won). The largest No holder is moonrise-clump, with $5 on it, $1 lifetime loss over 211 markets (73% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $11K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.

Which side is the smart money on?

64% of the money on Yes and 40% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 25 points. A week ago, No by 33 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.