Who's betting on “Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 46% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 11 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $16K traded all time
- Held now
- $284 by 69 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 46% 54 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 34% 15 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $16K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
46% of the money on Yes and 34% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 11 points. A week ago, Yes by 9 points.
Who holds it
69 wallets hold a position worth $284 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 69 of them. The largest Yes holder is wavesinthesky, with $69 on it, $1.7K lifetime loss over 296 markets (20% won). The largest No holder is Brunomars, with $10 on it, $147 lifetime loss over 195 markets (75% won).
- Holders
- 54
- Money on it
- $257
- Holders' win rate
- 49%
- Holders
- 15
- Money on it
- $28
- Holders' win rate
- 66%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$257 on it
- 1wavesinthesky20% won of 296$69−$1.7K lifetime
- 2asdasdasdasdasdasdasd76% won of 241 · balanced$17+$23K lifetime
- 3kvinster100% won of 3$16−$342 lifetime
- 4b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.98% won of 3,389 · whale$13+$22K lifetime
- 5alexhstv0% won of 1$12−$32 lifetime
No$28 on it
- 1Brunomars75% won of 195$10−$147 lifetime
- 20xc861…3c8774% won of 53$5+$2 lifetime
- 3rocky4201850% won of 755$5−$26K lifetime
- 413klklas35% won of 241 · noise$3+$206 lifetime
- 5NomadAlex67% won of 201$2−$370 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
6 more- None in 2026$29K vol.Yes 66%No 34%Smart money: No
- Anthropic$21K vol.Yes 17%No 83%Smart money: No
- Google$16K vol.Yes 22%No 78%Smart money: Yes
- DeepSeek$14K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Alibaba$11K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- xAI$11K vol.Yes 1%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$1.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$898K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$888K vol.Yes 98%No 2%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$459K vol.Yes 39%No 62%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?"?
69 wallets hold a position worth $284 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 69 of them. The largest Yes holder is wavesinthesky, with $69 on it, $1.7K lifetime loss over 296 markets (20% won). The largest No holder is Brunomars, with $10 on it, $147 lifetime loss over 195 markets (75% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $16K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
46% of the money on Yes and 34% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 11 points. A week ago, Yes by 9 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.