Who's betting on “Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?”?
Politics · $9.3M volume · Ends December 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $9.3M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
88% of the money on Yes and 64% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 25 points. A week ago, Yes by 27 points.
228 wallets hold a position worth $1.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 228 of them. The largest Yes holder is Yelowyolo, with $322 on it, $5.3K lifetime profit over 200 markets (46% won). The largest No holder is Elias.Thornwell, with $722 on it, $4.5K lifetime profit over 2,940 markets (69% won).
- Smart money share
- 88%
- Holders
- 140
- Money on it
- $552
- Holders' winrate
- 46%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 64% ▲ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 88
- Money on it
- $1.1K
- Holders' winrate
- 60%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yelowyolonoise | $322 | +$5.3K | 46% of 200 |
| JustCrazywhale | $60 | +$32K | 47% of 264 |
| fiternoise | $29 | +$46K | 16% of 769 |
| 0xff1e312702b7Bc2c5B7Ed83bEac27F7ee257C010-1770712873326 | $15 | -$120 | - |
| CoffeeLoverwhale | $15 | +$267K | 46% of 1,030 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elias.Thornwellwhale | $722 | +$4.5K | 69% of 2,940 |
| 25QUTEL | $66 | -$5 | 48% of 40 |
| laojiucai100 | $27 | -$0 | 30% of 40 |
| Billy6840 | $23 | -$17 | 39% of 87 |
| 566AA | $20 | -$2 | 50% of 22 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Venezuela leader end of 2026?
- Richard Grenell$33M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Frank Donovan$26M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Evan Pettus$5.7M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Dan Caine$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Nicolás Maduro$3.6M vol.Yes 75%No 25%Smart money: Yes
- Dinorah Figuera$3.1M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Delcy Rodríguez$2.4M vol.Yes 17%No 83%Smart money: Yes
- Diosdado Cabello Rondón$2.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- No Head of State$1.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money split
- María Corina Machado$1.6M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Marco Rubio$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Edmundo González$1.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Jorge Rodríguez$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Donald Trump$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Vladimir Padrino López$891K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
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- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?"?
228 wallets hold a position worth $1.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 228 of them. The largest Yes holder is Yelowyolo, with $322 on it, $5.3K lifetime profit over 200 markets (46% won). The largest No holder is Elias.Thornwell, with $722 on it, $4.5K lifetime profit over 2,940 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $9.3M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
88% of the money on Yes and 64% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 25 points. A week ago, Yes by 27 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.