Who's betting on “Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?”?
Politics · $3.6M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 75¢ and No at 25¢, a 75% implied chance of Yes. $3.6M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
79% of the money on Yes and 34% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 45 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 45 points. A week ago, Yes by 40 points.
1,843 wallets hold a position worth $455K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,842 of them. The largest Yes holder is tetrase, with $27K on it, $965K lifetime profit over 1,185 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is dfdvbjgdhbh, with $4.8K on it, $10K lifetime loss over 20 markets (65% won).
3 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $683 on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1 on No.
- Smart money share
- 79%
- Holders
- 844
- Money on it
- $410K
- Holders' winrate
- 66%
- Snipers
- 3 · $683
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 34%
- Holders
- 999
- Money on it
- $44K
- Holders' winrate
- 59%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| tetrasewhale | $27K | +$965K | 65% of 1,185 |
| pkzwhale | $27K | +$62K | 62% of 1,034 |
| denizzwhale | $25K | +$2.3M | 66% of 1,006 |
| ImJustKenwhale | $24K | +$2.3M | 65% of 1,065 |
| Odysseus7whale | $20K | +$1.7K | 69% of 756 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| dfdvbjgdhbh | $4.8K | -$10K | 65% of 20 |
| bravisim0 | $3.5K | +$0 | - |
| Guak | $2.4K | -$1.8K | 37% of 201 |
| rwil | $1.9K | -$2.4K | 22% of 9 |
| tomorrownowwhale | $1.6K | +$733 | 75% of 117 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Venezuela leader end of 2026?
- Richard Grenell$33M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Frank Donovan$26M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Pete Hegseth$9.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Evan Pettus$5.7M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Dan Caine$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Dinorah Figuera$3.1M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Delcy Rodríguez$2.4M vol.Yes 17%No 83%Smart money: Yes
- Diosdado Cabello Rondón$2.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- No Head of State$1.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money split
- María Corina Machado$1.6M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Marco Rubio$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Edmundo González$1.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Jorge Rodríguez$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Donald Trump$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Vladimir Padrino López$891K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?"?
1,843 wallets hold a position worth $455K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,842 of them. The largest Yes holder is tetrase, with $27K on it, $965K lifetime profit over 1,185 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is dfdvbjgdhbh, with $4.8K on it, $10K lifetime loss over 20 markets (65% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 75¢ and No at 25¢, a 75% implied chance of Yes. $3.6M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
79% of the money on Yes and 34% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 45 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 45 points. A week ago, Yes by 40 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.