Who's betting on “Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 50% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 14 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $44K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.5K by 65 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 50% 31 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 36% 34 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $44K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
50% of the money on Yes and 36% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 14 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 18 points.
Who holds it
65 wallets hold a position worth $1.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 65 of them. The largest Yes holder is Numitus1994, with $21 on it, $28K lifetime loss over 15,720 markets (49% won). The largest No holder is shiifoo, with $227 on it, $46K lifetime profit over 4,739 markets (52% won).
- Holders
- 31
- Money on it
- $81
- Holders' win rate
- 45%
- Holders
- 34
- Money on it
- $1.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 68%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$81 on it
- 1Numitus199449% won of 15,720$21−$28K lifetime
- 24201251% won of 799 · whale$16+$35K lifetime
- 3Crevonde82% won of 38$6+$3 lifetime
- 4Oklmntrader13% won of 577$6−$173K lifetime
- 5xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,246 · noise$6+$255K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
9 more- Earbuds/Headphones$125K vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: No
- Glasses$71K vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money split
- Phone$64K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money split
- Computer (Laptop/Desktop)$45K vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- Necklace$28K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money split
- Clip-on device for clothing$28K vol.Yes 11%No 89%Smart money: Yes
- Tablet$26K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: Yes
- Ring$16K vol.Yes 5%No 96%Smart money split
- Head-mounted display$15K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$925K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$898K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$886K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$457K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?"?
65 wallets hold a position worth $1.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 65 of them. The largest Yes holder is Numitus1994, with $21 on it, $28K lifetime loss over 15,720 markets (49% won). The largest No holder is shiifoo, with $227 on it, $46K lifetime profit over 4,739 markets (52% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $44K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
50% of the money on Yes and 36% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 14 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 18 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.