Who's betting on “Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $64K traded all time
- Held now
- $8.4K by 126 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 65% 74 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 69% 50 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $64K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
65% of the money on Yes and 69% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 25 points. A week ago, No by 25 points.
Who holds it
126 wallets hold a position worth $8.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 124 of them. The largest Yes holder is Contentious-Dinnerdate, with $99 on it, $104K lifetime profit over 1,087 markets (67% won). The largest No holder is tourists, with $4.4K on it, $517K lifetime profit over 944 markets (69% won).
- Holders
- 75
- Money on it
- $590
- Holders' win rate
- 54%
- Holders
- 51
- Money on it
- $7.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 71%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$590 on it
- 1Contentious-Dinnerdate67% won of 1,087 · whale$99+$104K lifetime
- 2Car58% won of 1,784 · whale$70+$1.5M lifetime
- 3ooops67% won of 215$45−$6.0K lifetime
- 4Dr.PNL30% won of 15,261$34−$485K lifetime
- 5Perypery30% won of 473 · noise$33+$44K lifetime
No$7.8K on it
- 1tourists69% won of 944 · whale$4.4K+$517K lifetime
- 2traboukos70% won of 71$1.6K−$1.3K lifetime
- 3Tenebrus766% won of 1,613 · whale$465+$154K lifetime
- 4123pocky77% won of 204$465−$6.9K lifetime
- 5captfantastic64% won of 11$104+$88 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
9 more- Earbuds/Headphones$125K vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: No
- Glasses$70K vol.Yes 10%No 90%Smart money: No
- Computer (Laptop/Desktop)$45K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: Yes
- Watch$44K vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- Necklace$28K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money split
- Clip-on device for clothing$28K vol.Yes 11%No 89%Smart money: Yes
- Tablet$26K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: Yes
- Ring$16K vol.Yes 5%No 96%Smart money split
- Head-mounted display$15K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$925K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$897K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$885K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$456K vol.Yes 42%No 59%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?"?
126 wallets hold a position worth $8.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 124 of them. The largest Yes holder is Contentious-Dinnerdate, with $99 on it, $104K lifetime profit over 1,087 markets (67% won). The largest No holder is tourists, with $4.4K on it, $517K lifetime profit over 944 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $64K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
65% of the money on Yes and 69% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 25 points. A week ago, No by 25 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.