Who's betting on “Will Juan Reyes Mejía González be arrested in 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 77% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 29 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $39K traded all time
- Held now
- $766 by 32 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 48% 17 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 77% 15 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 10¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $39K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
48% of the money on Yes and 77% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 29 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 29 points. A week ago, No by 19 points.
Who holds it
32 wallets hold a position worth $766 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 32 of them. The largest Yes holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $22 on it, $254K lifetime profit over 123,272 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is aviato, with $259 on it, $201K lifetime profit over 1,340 markets (80% won).
- Holders
- 17
- Money on it
- $73
- Holders' win rate
- 47%
- Holders
- 15
- Money on it
- $693
- Holders' win rate
- 77%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$73 on it
- 1xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,272 · noise$22+$254K lifetime
- 2Haradwaith50% won of 54,120$15−$378K lifetime
- 3Railcool74% won of 145 · whale$10+$125K lifetime
- 4napamen2% won of 2,524$5−$7.9K lifetime
- 5Fihdrzgdd40% won of 3,576$4−$20K lifetime
No$693 on it
- 1aviato80% won of 1,340 · whale$259+$201K lifetime
- 20xD056D2E765630Ee61850a7c743A30E20D2E2F1be-176451277003187% won of 226 · grinder$233+$7.3K lifetime
- 3RewardsNinja76% won of 288$48−$3.9K lifetime
- 40x80fe…d37590% won of 460$30−$441 lifetime
- 5predictdogepepewif23% won of 7,552$27−$39K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?
3 more- Ricardo Ruiz Velasco$63K vol.Yes 14%No 86%Smart money: Yes
- Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez$60K vol.Yes 11%No 89%Smart money split
- Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar$11K vol.Yes 20%No 80%Smart money split
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Juan Reyes Mejía González be arrested in 2026?"?
32 wallets hold a position worth $766 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 32 of them. The largest Yes holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $22 on it, $254K lifetime profit over 123,272 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is aviato, with $259 on it, $201K lifetime profit over 1,340 markets (80% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Juan Reyes Mejía González be arrested in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 10¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $39K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
48% of the money on Yes and 77% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 29 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 29 points. A week ago, No by 19 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.