Who's betting on “Will Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez be arrested in 2026?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $60K traded all time
- Held now
- $433 by 31 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 74% 17 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 79% 14 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 11¢ and No at 89¢, an 89% implied chance of No. $60K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
74% of the money on Yes and 79% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 10 points.
Who holds it
31 wallets hold a position worth $433 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 31 of them. The largest Yes holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $30 on it, $254K lifetime profit over 123,272 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is clazzy1, with $155 on it, $27K lifetime profit over 624 markets (69% won).
- Holders
- 17
- Money on it
- $48
- Holders' win rate
- 44%
- Holders
- 14
- Money on it
- $385
- Holders' win rate
- 69%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$48 on it
- 1xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,272 · noise$30+$254K lifetime
- 2JourneyerJohn50% won of 208$6−$53 lifetime
- 3Hot-Skull92% won of 314 · whale$3+$31K lifetime
- 4Dr.PNL30% won of 15,294$2−$485K lifetime
- 5GuyFromTinder37% won of 22,344$2−$89K lifetime
No$385 on it
- 1clazzy169% won of 624 · whale$155+$27K lifetime
- 2supersmard60% won of 116 · whale$60+$80K lifetime
- 3Robbb80% won of 489 · whale$50+$94K lifetime
- 40x80fe…d37590% won of 460$30−$441 lifetime
- 5pootytherewardfarmer35% won of 10,703$28−$320K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?
3 more- Ricardo Ruiz Velasco$63K vol.Yes 14%No 86%Smart money: Yes
- Juan Reyes Mejía González$39K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar$11K vol.Yes 20%No 80%Smart money split
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez be arrested in 2026?"?
31 wallets hold a position worth $433 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 31 of them. The largest Yes holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $30 on it, $254K lifetime profit over 123,272 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is clazzy1, with $155 on it, $27K lifetime profit over 624 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez be arrested in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 11¢ and No at 89¢, an 89% implied chance of No. $60K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
74% of the money on Yes and 79% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 10 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.