Who's betting on “Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $11K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.1K by 49 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 85% 28 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 88% 21 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 20¢ and No at 80¢, an 80% implied chance of No. $11K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
85% of the money on Yes and 88% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 6 points.
Who holds it
49 wallets hold a position worth $1.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 49 of them. The largest Yes holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $72 on it, $255K lifetime profit over 123,253 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is clazzy1, with $507 on it, $27K lifetime profit over 624 markets (69% won).
- Holders
- 28
- Money on it
- $227
- Holders' win rate
- 45%
- Holders
- 21
- Money on it
- $914
- Holders' win rate
- 63%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$227 on it
- 1xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,253 · noise$72+$255K lifetime
- 2eleazar43% won of 263 · noise$61+$7.0K lifetime
- 32B9S27% won of 14,477 · noise$16+$97K lifetime
- 40x58e80Dd4a5c365BA380795103f5E0963a287bB5A-178176742433870% won of 548 · balanced$13+$925 lifetime
- 5BASSATS0152% won of 322 · whale$12+$1.8K lifetime
No$914 on it
- 1clazzy169% won of 624 · whale$507+$27K lifetime
- 2derm0rx37% won of 60$110+$247 lifetime
- 3aviato80% won of 1,340 · whale$86+$201K lifetime
- 4geonb98% won of 59$46+$9 lifetime
- 5predictdogepepewif23% won of 7,402$32−$39K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?
3 more- Ricardo Ruiz Velasco$63K vol.Yes 14%No 86%Smart money: Yes
- Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez$60K vol.Yes 11%No 89%Smart money split
- Juan Reyes Mejía González$39K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?"?
49 wallets hold a position worth $1.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 49 of them. The largest Yes holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $72 on it, $255K lifetime profit over 123,253 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is clazzy1, with $507 on it, $27K lifetime profit over 624 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 20¢ and No at 80¢, an 80% implied chance of No. $11K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
85% of the money on Yes and 88% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 6 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.