Who's betting on “Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?”?
Smart money leans No: 81% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 9 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $27K traded all time
- Held now
- $2.6K by 60 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 72% 28 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 81% 32 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $27K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
72% of the money on Yes and 81% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 14 points. A week ago, No by 15 points.
Who holds it
60 wallets hold a position worth $2.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 60 of them. The largest Yes holder is Perypery, with $29 on it, $44K lifetime profit over 473 markets (30% won). The largest No holder is libratus1, with $468 on it, $60K lifetime profit over 208 markets (83% won).
- Holders
- 28
- Money on it
- $165
- Holders' win rate
- 53%
- Holders
- 32
- Money on it
- $2.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 75%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$165 on it
- 1Perypery30% won of 473 · noise$29+$44K lifetime
- 2Redgoldsnapper77% won of 66 · balanced$23+$600 lifetime
- 3thecaricature44% won of 717$19−$7.9K lifetime
- 4tj993% won of 155 · grinder$17+$830 lifetime
- 50x652bFf901f401Fdhsk342kdjfnfk029abks1374% won of 303 · balanced$13+$11K lifetime
No$2.4K on it
- 1libratus183% won of 208 · whale$468+$60K lifetime
- 2BabyIBeenWatchingYou64% won of 204 · whale$373+$23K lifetime
- 3luish73% won of 201 · balanced$271+$2.5K lifetime
- 40x2eba…ffa352% won of 207 · balanced$215+$289 lifetime
- 5TheWindKnowsmyName68% won of 490$119−$52K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
3 more- ↑ 1550$55K vol.Yes 23%No 78%Smart money: Yes
- ↑ 1540$15K vol.Yes 99%No 1%Smart money: Yes
- ↑ 1530$19K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
Other big tech markets
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- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$885K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$456K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?"?
60 wallets hold a position worth $2.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 60 of them. The largest Yes holder is Perypery, with $29 on it, $44K lifetime profit over 473 markets (30% won). The largest No holder is libratus1, with $468 on it, $60K lifetime profit over 208 markets (83% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $27K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
72% of the money on Yes and 81% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 14 points. A week ago, No by 15 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.