Who's betting on “Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 87% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 44 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $15K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.8K by 58 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 87% 30 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 43% 28 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 99¢ and No at 1¢, a 99% implied chance of Yes. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
87% of the money on Yes and 43% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 44 points.
Who holds it
58 wallets hold a position worth $4.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 58 of them. The largest Yes holder is CryptoPuchok, with $1.5K on it, $1.9K lifetime profit over 42 markets (90% won). The largest No holder is TheWindKnowsmyName, with $27 on it, $52K lifetime loss over 490 markets (68% won).
- Holders
- 30
- Money on it
- $4.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 75%
- Holders
- 28
- Money on it
- $48
- Holders' win rate
- 62%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$4.7K on it
- 1CryptoPuchok90% won of 42 · balanced$1.5K+$1.9K lifetime
- 2lamyk59% won of 320 · balanced$1.4K+$20K lifetime
- 3hwey346ed94% won of 18$688+$1.2K lifetime
- 4dedidanc67% won of 267$435−$5.3K lifetime
- 5mariacryptoss57% won of 51 · balanced$254+$352 lifetime
No$48 on it
- 1TheWindKnowsmyName68% won of 490$27−$52K lifetime
- 2libratus183% won of 208 · whale$4+$60K lifetime
- 3LornaPredicts28% won of 15,856 · noise$4+$27K lifetime
- 4lukas1164% won of 228 · balanced$3+$5.6K lifetime
- 5qqqppp-l138% won of 7,200 · noise$2+$10K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
3 more- ↑ 1550$55K vol.Yes 23%No 78%Smart money: Yes
- ↑ 1600$27K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- ↑ 1530$19K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$925K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$897K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$885K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$456K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?"?
58 wallets hold a position worth $4.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 58 of them. The largest Yes holder is CryptoPuchok, with $1.5K on it, $1.9K lifetime profit over 42 markets (90% won). The largest No holder is TheWindKnowsmyName, with $27 on it, $52K lifetime loss over 490 markets (68% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 99¢ and No at 1¢, a 99% implied chance of Yes. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
87% of the money on Yes and 43% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 44 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.