Who's betting on “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027?”?
Politics · $71K volume · Ends November 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 66¢ and No at 35¢, a 66% implied chance of Yes. $71K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2027.
98% of the money on Yes and 47% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 51 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 18 points. A week ago, No by 29 points.
34 wallets hold a position worth $2.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 33 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x36dAfd0ed99D902F8bDfe9e090ecDc48b053907B-1762688421136, with $1.2K on it, $137 lifetime profit over 404 markets (74% won). The largest No holder is DavidofAnalytics, with $405 on it, $1.3K lifetime loss over 66 markets (23% won).
- Smart money share
- 98% ▲ 69 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 18
- Money on it
- $1.8K
- Holders' winrate
- 69%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 47%
- Holders
- 16
- Money on it
- $971
- Holders' winrate
- 42%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x36dAfd0ed99D902F8bDfe9e090ecDc48b053907B-1762688421136balanced | $1.2K | +$137 | 74% of 404 |
| SuperTestsbalanced | $289 | +$14K | 53% of 1,513 |
| 0x77ea…25a0 | $99 | - | - |
| 0x279C5de35108AFC30b99f09e595555B428E92b82-1777882786715whale | $98 | +$5.5K | 56% of 331 |
| Tenebrus7whale | $74 | +$155K | 66% of 1,516 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| DavidofAnalytics | $405 | -$1.3K | 23% of 66 |
| newnewuserwhale | $345 | +$37K | 56% of 259 |
| StupidMonkeyyywhale | $52 | +$6.3K | 49% of 244 |
| arb-dog0 | $34 | -$83 | 54% of 317 |
| Echo-Opis | $28 | -$798 | 43% of 214 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
- December 31$3.0M vol.Yes 22%No 79%Smart money: Yes
- October 31$2.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- March 31, 2027$236K vol.Yes 35%No 65%Smart money split
- June 30, 2027$175K vol.Yes 55%No 45%Smart money: No
- January 31, 2027$136K vol.Yes 25%No 76%Smart money: Yes
- May 31, 2027$116K vol.Yes 51%No 49%Smart money: No
- November 30$91K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- December 31, 2027$52K vol.Yes 72%No 28%Smart money: Yes
- February 28, 2027$39K vol.Yes 30%No 70%Smart money: No
- April 30, 2027$15K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027?"?
34 wallets hold a position worth $2.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 33 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x36dAfd0ed99D902F8bDfe9e090ecDc48b053907B-1762688421136, with $1.2K on it, $137 lifetime profit over 404 markets (74% won). The largest No holder is DavidofAnalytics, with $405 on it, $1.3K lifetime loss over 66 markets (23% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 66¢ and No at 35¢, a 66% implied chance of Yes. $71K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
98% of the money on Yes and 47% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 51 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 18 points. A week ago, No by 29 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.