Who's betting on “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?”?
Politics · $136K volume · Ends February 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 25¢ and No at 76¢, a 76% implied chance of No. $136K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on February 1, 2027.
84% of the money on Yes and 66% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 19 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 23 points. A week ago, Yes by 18 points.
226 wallets hold a position worth $48K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 225 of them. The largest Yes holder is smellyEllie, with $2.0K on it, $103K lifetime profit over 1,897 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is 0x1cD417839E1AFbdB30201845Cd1C09BC2E9ff100-1775123478562, with $8.4K on it, $1.7K lifetime profit over 30 markets (50% won).
- Smart money share
- 84%
- Holders
- 117
- Money on it
- $12K
- Holders' winrate
- 60%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 66% ▲ 5 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 109
- Money on it
- $36K
- Holders' winrate
- 58%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| smellyElliewhale | $2.0K | +$103K | 50% of 1,897 |
| GollumGekkowhale | $1.4K | +$281K | 73% of 1,157 |
| Carwhale | $962 | +$1.5M | 58% of 1,670 |
| gimbobo | $768 | -$1.2K | 53% of 135 |
| Gluckykluckywhale | $766 | +$22K | 87% of 388 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x1cD417839E1AFbdB30201845Cd1C09BC2E9ff100-1775123478562noise | $8.4K | +$1.7K | 50% of 30 |
| xoua | $5.4K | -$14K | 55% of 132 |
| Te0n2whale | $2.0K | +$42K | 62% of 749 |
| cat-dogbalanced | $1.9K | +$38K | 69% of 180 |
| zynxs | $1.8K | +$70 | - |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
- December 31$3.0M vol.Yes 22%No 79%Smart money: Yes
- October 31$2.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- March 31, 2027$236K vol.Yes 35%No 65%Smart money split
- June 30, 2027$175K vol.Yes 55%No 45%Smart money: No
- May 31, 2027$116K vol.Yes 51%No 49%Smart money: No
- November 30$91K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- October 31, 2027$71K vol.Yes 66%No 35%Smart money: Yes
- December 31, 2027$52K vol.Yes 72%No 28%Smart money: Yes
- February 28, 2027$39K vol.Yes 30%No 70%Smart money: No
- April 30, 2027$15K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?"?
226 wallets hold a position worth $48K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 225 of them. The largest Yes holder is smellyEllie, with $2.0K on it, $103K lifetime profit over 1,897 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is 0x1cD417839E1AFbdB30201845Cd1C09BC2E9ff100-1775123478562, with $8.4K on it, $1.7K lifetime profit over 30 markets (50% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 25¢ and No at 76¢, a 76% implied chance of No. $136K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on February 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
84% of the money on Yes and 66% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 19 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 23 points. A week ago, Yes by 18 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on February 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.