Who's betting on “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?”?
Politics · $236K volume · Ends April 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 35¢ and No at 65¢, a 65% implied chance of No. $236K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 1, 2027.
85% of the money on Yes and 86% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 14 points.
210 wallets hold a position worth $41K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 209 of them. The largest Yes holder is Car, with $3.7K on it, $1.5M lifetime profit over 1,670 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is alwaysOn, with $6.6K on it, $28K lifetime profit over 1,020 markets (75% won).
- Smart money share
- 85% ▲ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 118
- Money on it
- $14K
- Holders' winrate
- 58%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 86%
- Holders
- 92
- Money on it
- $27K
- Holders' winrate
- 68%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carwhale | $3.7K | +$1.5M | 58% of 1,670 |
| Mwhale | $1.2K | -$676 | 55% of 532 |
| Hakei.whale | $1.1K | +$95K | 71% of 1,025 |
| smellyElliewhale | $998 | +$103K | 50% of 1,897 |
| newnewuserwhale | $900 | +$37K | 56% of 259 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| alwaysOnwhale | $6.6K | +$28K | 75% of 1,020 |
| kela.mov | $3.6K | +$636 | 100% of 2 |
| yarokomarov | $3.3K | +$346 | 100% of 1 |
| WzapS | $3.3K | +$703 | 80% of 10 |
| KrackenSrusterwhale | $2.6K | +$273K | 66% of 904 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
- December 31$3.0M vol.Yes 22%No 79%Smart money: Yes
- October 31$2.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- June 30, 2027$175K vol.Yes 55%No 45%Smart money: No
- January 31, 2027$136K vol.Yes 25%No 76%Smart money: Yes
- May 31, 2027$116K vol.Yes 51%No 49%Smart money: No
- November 30$91K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- October 31, 2027$71K vol.Yes 66%No 35%Smart money: Yes
- December 31, 2027$52K vol.Yes 72%No 28%Smart money: Yes
- February 28, 2027$39K vol.Yes 30%No 70%Smart money: No
- April 30, 2027$15K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?"?
210 wallets hold a position worth $41K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 209 of them. The largest Yes holder is Car, with $3.7K on it, $1.5M lifetime profit over 1,670 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is alwaysOn, with $6.6K on it, $28K lifetime profit over 1,020 markets (75% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 35¢ and No at 65¢, a 65% implied chance of No. $236K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
85% of the money on Yes and 86% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 14 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on April 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.