Who's betting on “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?”?
Politics · $3.0M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 22¢ and No at 79¢, a 79% implied chance of No. $3.0M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
89% of the money on Yes and 59% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 31 points. A week ago, Yes by 30 points.
1,405 wallets hold a position worth $331K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,392 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-1767532547794, with $6.5K on it, $35K lifetime profit over 1,032 markets (49% won). The largest No holder is God, with $16K on it, $3.6K lifetime loss over 80 markets (36% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $2.8K on No.
- Smart money share
- 89%
- Holders
- 640
- Money on it
- $71K
- Holders' winrate
- 54%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 59%
- Holders
- 765
- Money on it
- $260K
- Holders' winrate
- 64%
- Snipers
- 1 · $2.8K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-1767532547794whale | $6.5K | +$35K | 49% of 1,032 |
| 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115whale | $4.8K | +$22K | 65% of 84 |
| BigBoiBettinbalanced | $4.5K | +$22K | 56% of 200 |
| 881112whale | $4.0K | +$442K | 60% of 1,101 |
| smellyElliewhale | $3.9K | +$103K | 50% of 1,897 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
- October 31$2.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- March 31, 2027$236K vol.Yes 35%No 66%Smart money split
- June 30, 2027$175K vol.Yes 55%No 45%Smart money: No
- January 31, 2027$136K vol.Yes 25%No 76%Smart money: Yes
- May 31, 2027$116K vol.Yes 51%No 49%Smart money split
- November 30$91K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
- October 31, 2027$71K vol.Yes 66%No 34%Smart money: No
- December 31, 2027$52K vol.Yes 72%No 28%Smart money: Yes
- February 28, 2027$39K vol.Yes 30%No 70%Smart money: No
- April 30, 2027$15K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?"?
1,405 wallets hold a position worth $331K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,392 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-1767532547794, with $6.5K on it, $35K lifetime profit over 1,032 markets (49% won). The largest No holder is God, with $16K on it, $3.6K lifetime loss over 80 markets (36% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 22¢ and No at 79¢, a 79% implied chance of No. $3.0M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
89% of the money on Yes and 59% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 31 points. A week ago, Yes by 30 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.