Who's betting on “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?”?
Politics · $175K volume · Ends July 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 55¢ and No at 45¢, a 55% implied chance of Yes. $175K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on July 1, 2027.
82% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 6 points. A week ago, No by 8 points.
205 wallets hold a position worth $35K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 204 of them. The largest Yes holder is Hakei., with $5.1K on it, $95K lifetime profit over 1,025 markets (71% won). The largest No holder is siick, with $5.3K on it, $96K lifetime profit over 1,032 markets (69% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $2.1K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 82%
- Holders
- 106
- Money on it
- $19K
- Holders' winrate
- 67%
- Snipers
- 1 · $2.1K
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 90%
- Holders
- 99
- Money on it
- $16K
- Holders' winrate
- 72%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hakei.whale | $5.1K | +$95K | 71% of 1,025 |
| lostapivsniper | $2.1K | +$11K | 89% of 27 |
| GenaCyberpunk | $968 | -$195 | 48% of 21 |
| sdiff123 | $844 | -$33K | 53% of 761 |
| hku2090 | $834 | +$1.5K | 81% of 16 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| siickwhale | $5.3K | +$96K | 69% of 1,032 |
| SirHarryOakeswhale | $2.8K | +$47K | 82% of 299 |
| 0x06d3…b956balanced | $1.3K | +$384 | 78% of 58 |
| JoeBlack01whale | $847 | +$89K | 65% of 1,022 |
| WzapS | $838 | +$703 | 80% of 10 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
- December 31$3.0M vol.Yes 22%No 79%Smart money: Yes
- October 31$2.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- March 31, 2027$236K vol.Yes 35%No 65%Smart money split
- January 31, 2027$136K vol.Yes 25%No 76%Smart money: Yes
- May 31, 2027$116K vol.Yes 51%No 49%Smart money: No
- November 30$92K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- October 31, 2027$71K vol.Yes 66%No 34%Smart money: Yes
- December 31, 2027$52K vol.Yes 71%No 30%Smart money: Yes
- February 28, 2027$39K vol.Yes 30%No 70%Smart money: Yes
- April 30, 2027$15K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?"?
205 wallets hold a position worth $35K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 204 of them. The largest Yes holder is Hakei., with $5.1K on it, $95K lifetime profit over 1,025 markets (71% won). The largest No holder is siick, with $5.3K on it, $96K lifetime profit over 1,032 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 55¢ and No at 45¢, a 55% implied chance of Yes. $175K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on July 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
82% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 6 points. A week ago, No by 8 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on July 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.