Who's betting on “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027?”?
Politics · $15K volume · Ends May 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 43¢ and No at 57¢, a 57% implied chance of No. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on May 1, 2027.
98% of the money on Yes and 75% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 24 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 24 points.
51 wallets hold a position worth $4.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 50 of them. The largest Yes holder is smellyEllie, with $915 on it, $103K lifetime profit over 1,897 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is newnewuser, with $570 on it, $37K lifetime profit over 259 markets (56% won).
- Smart money share
- 98%
- Holders
- 20
- Money on it
- $1.8K
- Holders' winrate
- 57%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 75%
- Holders
- 31
- Money on it
- $2.3K
- Holders' winrate
- 70%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| smellyElliewhale | $915 | +$103K | 50% of 1,897 |
| TimeTravelerwhale | $258 | +$149K | 88% of 1,276 |
| SuperTestsbalanced | $226 | +$14K | 53% of 1,513 |
| 0x77ea…25a0 | $100 | - | - |
| gesstwhale | $90 | +$47K | 51% of 341 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| newnewuserwhale | $570 | +$37K | 56% of 259 |
| unsecured7308balanced | $552 | +$3.9K | 90% of 206 |
| Haradwaith | $204 | -$334K | 50% of 45,650 |
| Qwertiebalanced | $199 | +$5.0K | 64% of 55 |
| doctorzhao | $189 | +$224 | 83% of 6 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
- December 31$3.0M vol.Yes 22%No 79%Smart money: Yes
- October 31$2.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- March 31, 2027$236K vol.Yes 35%No 65%Smart money split
- June 30, 2027$175K vol.Yes 55%No 45%Smart money: No
- January 31, 2027$136K vol.Yes 25%No 76%Smart money: Yes
- May 31, 2027$116K vol.Yes 51%No 49%Smart money: No
- November 30$91K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- October 31, 2027$71K vol.Yes 66%No 35%Smart money: Yes
- December 31, 2027$52K vol.Yes 72%No 28%Smart money: Yes
- February 28, 2027$39K vol.Yes 30%No 70%Smart money: No
Who's betting on Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027?"?
51 wallets hold a position worth $4.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 50 of them. The largest Yes holder is smellyEllie, with $915 on it, $103K lifetime profit over 1,897 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is newnewuser, with $570 on it, $37K lifetime profit over 259 markets (56% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 43¢ and No at 57¢, a 57% implied chance of No. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on May 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
98% of the money on Yes and 75% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 24 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 24 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on May 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.