Who's betting on “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?”?
Politics · $52K volume · Ends January 1, 2028 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 72¢ and No at 28¢, a 72% implied chance of Yes. $52K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
79% of the money on Yes and 57% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 22 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 20 points. A week ago, Yes by 18 points.
151 wallets hold a position worth $34K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 150 of them. The largest Yes holder is tsybka, with $13K on it, $351K lifetime profit over 960 markets (84% won). The largest No holder is Voland6777, with $2.8K on it, $9.3K lifetime loss over 15 markets (87% won).
- Smart money share
- 79% ▲ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 70
- Money on it
- $24K
- Holders' winrate
- 76%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 57%
- Holders
- 81
- Money on it
- $9.8K
- Holders' winrate
- 72%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| tsybkawhale | $13K | +$351K | 84% of 960 |
| 0x6bd2671189761274417e66D1F6a834ecdBb695f6-1761995156221balanced | $1.9K | +$2.8K | 93% of 350 |
| newnewuserwhale | $1.8K | +$37K | 56% of 259 |
| trader-05ddbe2e | $1.5K | -$3.3K | 65% of 402 |
| AMAM13 | $1.0K | -$116K | 57% of 5,490 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voland6777 | $2.8K | -$9.3K | 87% of 15 |
| Carwhale | $2.4K | +$1.5M | 58% of 1,670 |
| ihorkoval | $1.3K | +$241 | 100% of 3 |
| doctorzhao | $661 | +$224 | 83% of 6 |
| KnightianUncertaintybalanced | $580 | +$1.8K | 66% of 41 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
- December 31$3.0M vol.Yes 22%No 79%Smart money: Yes
- October 31$2.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- March 31, 2027$236K vol.Yes 35%No 65%Smart money split
- June 30, 2027$175K vol.Yes 55%No 45%Smart money: No
- January 31, 2027$136K vol.Yes 25%No 76%Smart money: Yes
- May 31, 2027$116K vol.Yes 51%No 49%Smart money: No
- November 30$91K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- October 31, 2027$71K vol.Yes 66%No 35%Smart money: Yes
- February 28, 2027$39K vol.Yes 30%No 70%Smart money: No
- April 30, 2027$15K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?"?
151 wallets hold a position worth $34K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 150 of them. The largest Yes holder is tsybka, with $13K on it, $351K lifetime profit over 960 markets (84% won). The largest No holder is Voland6777, with $2.8K on it, $9.3K lifetime loss over 15 markets (87% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 72¢ and No at 28¢, a 72% implied chance of Yes. $52K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
Which side is the smart money on?
79% of the money on Yes and 57% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 22 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 20 points. A week ago, Yes by 18 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.