Who's betting on “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?”?
Politics · $2.6M volume · Ends November 1, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $2.6M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
61% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 19 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 19 points. A week ago, No by 6 points.
1,154 wallets hold a position worth $426K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,147 of them. The largest Yes holder is wan123, with $934 on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 273 markets (79% won). The largest No holder is Baristas, with $46K on it, $1.2K lifetime profit over 128 markets (100% won).
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $4.9K on No.
- Smart money share
- 61% ▼ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 409
- Money on it
- $9.4K
- Holders' winrate
- 49%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 80% ▼ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 745
- Money on it
- $416K
- Holders' winrate
- 80%
- Snipers
- 2 · $4.9K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| wan123whale | $934 | +$1.2M | 79% of 273 |
| I0I0I0 | $930 | -$1.3K | 11% of 83 |
| BigBoiBettinbalanced | $638 | +$22K | 56% of 200 |
| 0xa2C64E2204E76C6077D0BB9c442736C79c91757b-1776097218535 | $549 | +$667 | 67% of 3 |
| 0x2DF77e862aF88a9cC3Dbb88707B604a85884d71b-1780411072935 | $428 | +$770 | 100% of 1 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baristasgrinder | $46K | +$1.2K | 100% of 128 |
| Chepaikgrinder | $32K | +$963 | 100% of 156 |
| 0xBE482CD6e5183BE8767f03b48EBc3FF35769683f-1768081000582whale | $24K | +$14K | 80% of 20 |
| MisTKywhale | $23K | +$324K | 62% of 1,325 |
| How.Dare.You | $20K | -$831K | 75% of 1,004 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
- December 31$3.0M vol.Yes 22%No 79%Smart money: Yes
- March 31, 2027$236K vol.Yes 35%No 65%Smart money split
- June 30, 2027$175K vol.Yes 55%No 45%Smart money: No
- January 31, 2027$136K vol.Yes 25%No 76%Smart money: Yes
- May 31, 2027$116K vol.Yes 51%No 49%Smart money: No
- November 30$91K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- October 31, 2027$71K vol.Yes 66%No 35%Smart money: Yes
- December 31, 2027$52K vol.Yes 72%No 28%Smart money: Yes
- February 28, 2027$39K vol.Yes 30%No 70%Smart money: No
- April 30, 2027$15K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?"?
1,154 wallets hold a position worth $426K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,147 of them. The largest Yes holder is wan123, with $934 on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 273 markets (79% won). The largest No holder is Baristas, with $46K on it, $1.2K lifetime profit over 128 markets (100% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $2.6M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
61% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 19 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 19 points. A week ago, No by 6 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.