Who's betting on “Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 78% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 13 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $95K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.3K by 58 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 78% 31 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 65% 27 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 51¢ and No at 49¢, a 51% implied chance of Yes. $95K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
78% of the money on Yes and 65% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 13 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 88 points. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
58 wallets hold a position worth $1.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 58 of them. The largest Yes holder is smellyEllie, with $159 on it, $106K lifetime profit over 1,984 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is 0x9366…6350, with $336 on it, $5.2K lifetime profit over 92 markets (55% won).
- Holders
- 31
- Money on it
- $648
- Holders' win rate
- 60%
- Holders
- 27
- Money on it
- $622
- Holders' win rate
- 52%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$648 on it
- 1smellyEllie50% won of 1,984 · whale$159+$106K lifetime
- 2Cattail65% won of 241 · balanced$131+$15K lifetime
- 3cookiejar80% won of 203 · whale$77+$206 lifetime
- 4Mustafalafel80% won of 271 · whale$75+$45K lifetime
- 5tianrun31% won of 16$48−$1.5K lifetime
No$622 on it
- 10x9366…635055% won of 92 · balanced$336+$5.2K lifetime
- 20x96fdC65f91d9b885c64b674A538D41270697E80c-172909137015281% won of 16$62−$258 lifetime
- 3Zirkkon1630% won of 10$54−$27 lifetime
- 4LornaPredicts28% won of 15,917 · noise$41+$28K lifetime
- 5Penooooo37% won of 269$20−$118 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
6 more- JD Vance$148K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Donald Trump$110K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Friedrich Merz$80K vol.Yes 71%No 30%Smart money: No
- Mark Rutte$76K vol.Yes 47%No 54%Smart money: Yes
- Mark Carney$15K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
- Emmanuel Macron$12K vol.Yes 11%No 89%Smart money: No
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?"?
58 wallets hold a position worth $1.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 58 of them. The largest Yes holder is smellyEllie, with $159 on it, $106K lifetime profit over 1,984 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is 0x9366…6350, with $336 on it, $5.2K lifetime profit over 92 markets (55% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 51¢ and No at 49¢, a 51% implied chance of Yes. $95K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
78% of the money on Yes and 65% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 13 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 88 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.