Who's betting on “Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 89% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 43 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $80K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.6K by 52 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 46% 18 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 89% 34 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 71¢ and No at 30¢, a 71% implied chance of Yes. $80K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
46% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 43 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 44 points. A week ago, No by 43 points.
Who holds it
52 wallets hold a position worth $3.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 52 of them.
- Holders
- 18
- Money on it
- $2.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 66%
- Holders
- 34
- Money on it
- $991
- Holders' win rate
- 57%
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
6 more- JD Vance$148K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Donald Trump$110K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Ursula von der Leyen$95K vol.Yes 47%No 53%Smart money: Yes
- Mark Rutte$76K vol.Yes 46%No 54%Smart money: Yes
- Mark Carney$15K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
- Emmanuel Macron$12K vol.Yes 11%No 89%Smart money: No
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?"?
52 wallets hold a position worth $3.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 52 of them.
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 71¢ and No at 30¢, a 71% implied chance of Yes. $80K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
46% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 43 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 44 points. A week ago, No by 43 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.