Who's betting on “Will Mark Carney visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 64% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 35 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $15K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.6K by 37 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 29% 16 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 64% 21 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
29% of the money on Yes and 64% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 35 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 35 points. A week ago, No by 36 points.
Who holds it
37 wallets hold a position worth $1.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 37 of them. The largest Yes holder is balabalababalabala, with $86 on it, $58K lifetime loss over 318 markets (75% won). The largest No holder is Cattail, with $483 on it, $15K lifetime profit over 241 markets (65% won).
- Holders
- 16
- Money on it
- $134
- Holders' win rate
- 67%
- Holders
- 21
- Money on it
- $1.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 73%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$134 on it
- 1balabalababalabala75% won of 318$86−$58K lifetime
- 2xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,272 · noise$18+$254K lifetime
- 3PPMT70% won of 56,842 · whale$17+$16K lifetime
- 4nanioto48% won of 983$3−$755 lifetime
- 5Numitus199449% won of 15,786$2−$28K lifetime
No$1.4K on it
- 1Cattail65% won of 241 · balanced$483+$15K lifetime
- 2Smart-bettor783% won of 212$375−$2.4K lifetime
- 3stardustdream74% won of 23 · balanced$199+$206 lifetime
- 4nonkenny9092% won of 1,453 · whale$82+$80K lifetime
- 5Rawdy63% won of 652$65−$22K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
6 more- JD Vance$148K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Donald Trump$110K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Ursula von der Leyen$95K vol.Yes 51%No 49%Smart money: Yes
- Friedrich Merz$80K vol.Yes 71%No 30%Smart money: No
- Mark Rutte$76K vol.Yes 47%No 54%Smart money: Yes
- Emmanuel Macron$12K vol.Yes 11%No 89%Smart money: No
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Mark Carney visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?"?
37 wallets hold a position worth $1.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 37 of them. The largest Yes holder is balabalababalabala, with $86 on it, $58K lifetime loss over 318 markets (75% won). The largest No holder is Cattail, with $483 on it, $15K lifetime profit over 241 markets (65% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Mark Carney visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
29% of the money on Yes and 64% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 35 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 35 points. A week ago, No by 36 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.