Who's betting on “Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for China by December 31?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $20K traded all time
- Held now
- $5.4K by 58 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 85% 31 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 89% 26 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $20K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
85% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 22 points.
Who holds it
58 wallets hold a position worth $5.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 57 of them. The largest Yes holder is fledger, with $95 on it, $455 lifetime profit over 51 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is tetrase, with $2.9K on it, $973K lifetime profit over 1,216 markets (65% won).
- Holders
- 32
- Money on it
- $238
- Holders' win rate
- 72%
- Holders
- 26
- Money on it
- $5.2K
- Holders' win rate
- 69%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$238 on it
- 1fledger88% won of 51 · balanced$95+$455 lifetime
- 2PaddyAlpha69% won of 402 · whale$71+$56K lifetime
- 3trussy53% won of 112$21−$946 lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,253 · noise$13+$255K lifetime
- 5cambridgeisaac57% won of 1,129 · whale$7+$67K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?
5 more- Saudi Arabia$48K vol.Yes 33%No 68%Smart money: Yes
- Russia$27K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Meta$17K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Google$15K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Anthropic$15K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for China by December 31?"?
58 wallets hold a position worth $5.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 57 of them. The largest Yes holder is fledger, with $95 on it, $455 lifetime profit over 51 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is tetrase, with $2.9K on it, $973K lifetime profit over 1,216 markets (65% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for China by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $20K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
85% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 22 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.