Who's betting on “Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 87% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 34 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $41K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.7K by 84 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 87% 29 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 53% 55 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 30¢ and No at 71¢, a 71% implied chance of No. $41K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
87% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 34 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 36 points. A week ago, Yes by 34 points.
Who holds it
84 wallets hold a position worth $3.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 84 of them. The largest Yes holder is dedidanc, with $837 on it, $5.3K lifetime loss over 267 markets (67% won). The largest No holder is Tenebrus7, with $776 on it, $154K lifetime profit over 1,613 markets (66% won).
- Holders
- 29
- Money on it
- $1.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 62%
- Holders
- 55
- Money on it
- $2.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 54%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.1K on it
- 1dedidanc67% won of 267$837−$5.3K lifetime
- 20x8bb1…b0c556% won of 16$67+$65 lifetime
- 3Fihdrzgdd40% won of 3,576$44−$20K lifetime
- 4uniloktij36% won of 272$31−$280 lifetime
- 5xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,242 · noise$19+$255K lifetime
No$2.6K on it
- 1Tenebrus766% won of 1,613 · whale$776+$154K lifetime
- 2Dr.PNL30% won of 15,261$256−$485K lifetime
- 30x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F27% won of 15,727$255−$81K lifetime
- 4tradetosurvive145% won of 25,331$224−$217K lifetime
- 5Haradwaith50% won of 53,968$187−$377K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
3 more- 55%+$36K vol.Yes 11%No 90%Smart money: Yes
- 40%+$16K vol.Yes 26%No 75%Smart money: No
- 45%+$13K vol.Yes 90%No 11%Smart money: Yes
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$925K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$897K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$885K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$456K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?"?
84 wallets hold a position worth $3.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 84 of them. The largest Yes holder is dedidanc, with $837 on it, $5.3K lifetime loss over 267 markets (67% won). The largest No holder is Tenebrus7, with $776 on it, $154K lifetime profit over 1,613 markets (66% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 30¢ and No at 71¢, a 71% implied chance of No. $41K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
87% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 34 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 36 points. A week ago, Yes by 34 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.