Who's betting on “Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 63% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 18 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $13K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.1K by 35 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 63% 14 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 45% 21 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 90¢ and No at 11¢, a 90% implied chance of Yes. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
63% of the money on Yes and 45% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 18 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 18 points. A week ago, Yes by 18 points.
Who holds it
35 wallets hold a position worth $1.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 35 of them. The largest Yes holder is lamyk, with $474 on it, $20K lifetime profit over 323 markets (59% won). The largest No holder is lissartter, with $23 on it, $287K lifetime loss over 2,997 markets (56% won).
- Holders
- 14
- Money on it
- $956
- Holders' win rate
- 60%
- Holders
- 21
- Money on it
- $112
- Holders' win rate
- 55%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$956 on it
- 1lamyk59% won of 323 · balanced$474+$20K lifetime
- 2cucumberschicken29% won of 7$245−$1.5K lifetime
- 30x137410816BD83911FD81fD03dD89E4ecD34319a7-176482423894076% won of 21$88+$198 lifetime
- 4Oscarn75% won of 4$47−$20 lifetime
- 50x8bb1…b0c556% won of 16$39+$65 lifetime
No$112 on it
- 1lissartter56% won of 2,997$23−$287K lifetime
- 20x652bFf901f401Fdhsk342kdjfnfk029abks1374% won of 303 · balanced$18+$11K lifetime
- 3title157% won of 1,363 · whale$11+$24K lifetime
- 4LornaPredicts28% won of 15,856 · noise$11+$27K lifetime
- 5Fihdrzgdd40% won of 3,576$8−$20K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
3 more- 50%+$41K vol.Yes 30%No 71%Smart money: Yes
- 55%+$36K vol.Yes 11%No 90%Smart money: Yes
- 40%+$16K vol.Yes 26%No 75%Smart money: No
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$925K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$898K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$886K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$457K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?"?
35 wallets hold a position worth $1.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 35 of them. The largest Yes holder is lamyk, with $474 on it, $20K lifetime profit over 323 markets (59% won). The largest No holder is lissartter, with $23 on it, $287K lifetime loss over 2,997 markets (56% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 90¢ and No at 11¢, a 90% implied chance of Yes. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
63% of the money on Yes and 45% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 18 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 18 points. A week ago, Yes by 18 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.