Who's betting on “Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?”?
Smart money leans No: 68% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 29 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $11K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.6K by 29 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 40% 22 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 68% 7 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $11K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
40% of the money on Yes and 68% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 29 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 29 points. A week ago, No by 29 points.
Who holds it
29 wallets hold a position worth $1.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 29 of them. The largest Yes holder is 418Imateapot, with $33 on it, $47 lifetime loss over 230 markets (47% won). The largest No holder is Olcan, with $590 on it, $45K lifetime profit over 645 markets (70% won).
- Holders
- 22
- Money on it
- $109
- Holders' win rate
- 51%
- Holders
- 7
- Money on it
- $1.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 69%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$109 on it
- 1418Imateapot47% won of 230$33−$47 lifetime
- 2xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,272 · noise$19+$254K lifetime
- 3Haradwaith50% won of 54,120$18−$378K lifetime
- 4Computerdude11176% won of 136 · balanced$9+$750 lifetime
- 5Dr.PNL30% won of 15,294$8−$485K lifetime
No$1.4K on it
- 1Olcan70% won of 645 · whale$590+$45K lifetime
- 2varch0168% won of 1,164$431−$45K lifetime
- 3zk198475% won of 218 · balanced$372+$6.6K lifetime
- 4LornaPredicts28% won of 15,917 · noise$28+$28K lifetime
- 5lissartter56% won of 2,997$19−$287K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
3 more- 60%+$23K vol.Yes 24%No 76%Smart money: No
- 55%+$51K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- 50%+$49K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$1.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$898K vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$888K vol.Yes 98%No 2%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$459K vol.Yes 39%No 62%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?"?
29 wallets hold a position worth $1.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 29 of them. The largest Yes holder is 418Imateapot, with $33 on it, $47 lifetime loss over 230 markets (47% won). The largest No holder is Olcan, with $590 on it, $45K lifetime profit over 645 markets (70% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $11K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
40% of the money on Yes and 68% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 29 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 29 points. A week ago, No by 29 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.