Who's betting on “Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?”?
Polkyo has not scored enough holders on both sides yet to say where the smart money sits. It fills in as people trade.
- Volume
- $36K traded all time
- Held now
- $17K by 119 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 80% 90 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- - 26 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 62¢ and No at 38¢, a 62% implied chance of Yes. $36K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
One side holds too little money from wallets with a record (under $5K) to compare where the profitable money sits; Polkyo shows no lean until both sides have enough.
Who holds it
119 wallets hold a position worth $17K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 116 of them. The largest Yes holder is parav0z, with $2.6K on it, $11K lifetime profit over 21 markets (52% won). The largest No holder is JasonPunos, with $507 on it, $4.2K lifetime profit over 279 markets (87% won).
- Holders
- 93
- Money on it
- $16K
- Holders' win rate
- 58%
- Holders
- 26
- Money on it
- $1.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 75%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$16K on it
- 1parav0z52% won of 21 · noise$2.6K+$11K lifetime
- 20x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393843% won of 18,116 · whale$2.1K+$203K lifetime
- 30xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl79% won of 1,251 · whale$1.9K+$34K lifetime
- 40x5b91…270976% won of 1,039 · whale$769+$54K lifetime
- 5shiifoo52% won of 6,167 · whale$678+$51K lifetime
No$1.4K on it
- 1JasonPunos87% won of 279 · whale$507+$4.2K lifetime
- 2RayGuy90% won of 39 · balanced$321+$7.1K lifetime
- 3cigarettes46% won of 57,351$83−$144K lifetime
- 4reydelas73% won of 15$51−$6.1K lifetime
- 5Tysha47% won of 8,916 · whale$50+$27K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory
9 more- Talarico 3-6%$101K vol.Yes 1%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Talarico 0-3%$79K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- Talarico 6-9%$65K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Too little scored money to compare
- Talarico 12%+$65K vol.Yes 35%No 65%Smart money: Yes
- Paxton 3-6%$65K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Paxton 0-3%$52K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Paxton 6-9%$34K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Paxton 9-12%$28K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Paxton 12%+$22K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$77M vol.Yes 17%No 84%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$46M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?"?
119 wallets hold a position worth $17K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 116 of them. The largest Yes holder is parav0z, with $2.6K on it, $11K lifetime profit over 21 markets (52% won). The largest No holder is JasonPunos, with $507 on it, $4.2K lifetime profit over 279 markets (87% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 62¢ and No at 38¢, a 62% implied chance of Yes. $36K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
One side holds too little money from wallets with a record (under $5K) to compare where the profitable money sits; Polkyo shows no lean until both sides have enough.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.