Who's betting on “Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more?”?
Polkyo has not scored enough holders on both sides yet to say where the smart money sits. It fills in as people trade.
- Volume
- $28K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.9K by 69 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- - 53 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- - 15 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $28K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
One side holds too little money from wallets with a record (under $5K) to compare where the profitable money sits; Polkyo shows no lean until both sides have enough.
Who holds it
69 wallets hold a position worth $4.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 68 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl, with $153 on it, $34K lifetime profit over 1,251 markets (79% won). The largest No holder is XAE12Archangel, with $3.5K on it, $165K lifetime profit over 1,095 markets (75% won).
- Holders
- 54
- Money on it
- $728
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
- Holders
- 15
- Money on it
- $4.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 74%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$728 on it
- 10xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl79% won of 1,251 · whale$153+$34K lifetime
- 2parav0z52% won of 21 · noise$126+$11K lifetime
- 30x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393843% won of 16,591 · whale$116+$168K lifetime
- 4notgoodluck62% won of 222$41−$118K lifetime
- 5villa200% won of 1$36−$86 lifetime
No$4.1K on it
- 1XAE12Archangel75% won of 1,095 · whale$3.5K+$165K lifetime
- 2Talophex94% won of 1,082 · whale$195+$44K lifetime
- 3cigarettes46% won of 56,545$141−$110K lifetime
- 4Tysha47% won of 8,899 · whale$97+$26K lifetime
- 5coypu88% won of 311 · grinder$48+$1.4K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory
9 more- Talarico 3-6%$83K vol.Yes 24%No 77%Smart money: No
- Talarico 0-3%$62K vol.Yes 29%No 71%Smart money: No
- Paxton 3-6%$55K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Too little scored money to compare
- Paxton 0-3%$46K vol.Yes 13%No 87%Too little scored money to compare
- Talarico 6-9%$41K vol.Yes 20%No 80%Too little scored money to compare
- Paxton 6-9%$29K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- Talarico 9-12%$25K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Too little scored money to compare
- Paxton 9-12%$24K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- Paxton 12%+$21K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$77M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$46M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more?"?
69 wallets hold a position worth $4.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 68 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl, with $153 on it, $34K lifetime profit over 1,251 markets (79% won). The largest No holder is XAE12Archangel, with $3.5K on it, $165K lifetime profit over 1,095 markets (75% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $28K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
One side holds too little money from wallets with a record (under $5K) to compare where the profitable money sits; Polkyo shows no lean until both sides have enough.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.