Who's betting on “Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 58% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 24 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $19K traded all time
- Held now
- $2.8K by 74 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 58% 47 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 34% 27 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 25¢ and No at 76¢, a 76% implied chance of No. $19K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
58% of the money on Yes and 34% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 24 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 6 points.
Who holds it
74 wallets hold a position worth $2.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 74 of them. The largest Yes holder is DonVincero, with $422 on it, $5.8K lifetime loss over 253 markets (91% won). The largest No holder is AnonymousUsername, with $194 on it, $394K lifetime profit over 5,795 markets (70% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $41 on Yes.
- Holders
- 47
- Money on it
- $1.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 1 · $41
- Holders
- 27
- Money on it
- $855
- Holders' win rate
- 55%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.9K on it
- 1DonVincero91% won of 253$422−$5.8K lifetime
- 2blkcarib202065% won of 17$246−$174 lifetime
- 3Imbafer56% won of 471 · whale$220+$44K lifetime
- 4smellyEllie50% won of 1,983 · whale$188+$106K lifetime
- 5ragutwo63% won of 260 · balanced$116+$5.0K lifetime
No$855 on it
- 1AnonymousUsername70% won of 5,795 · whale$194+$394K lifetime
- 2426figuresno record yet$193+$0 lifetime
- 3K80PRO56% won of 859$121−$767 lifetime
- 4cigarettes46% won of 48,950$106−$50K lifetime
- 5galhammerman29% won of 7,080$39−$28K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory
3 more- Paxton 3-6%$25K vol.Yes 10%No 90%Smart money: No
- Talarico 0-3%$24K vol.Yes 35%No 66%Smart money: No
- Paxton 0-3%$16K vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: No
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?"?
74 wallets hold a position worth $2.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 74 of them. The largest Yes holder is DonVincero, with $422 on it, $5.8K lifetime loss over 253 markets (91% won). The largest No holder is AnonymousUsername, with $194 on it, $394K lifetime profit over 5,795 markets (70% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 25¢ and No at 76¢, a 76% implied chance of No. $19K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
58% of the money on Yes and 34% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 24 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 6 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.