Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%?”?
Smart money leans No: 54% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 32 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $16K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.8K by 58 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 22% 36 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 54% 22 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 12¢ and No at 88¢, an 88% implied chance of No. $16K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
22% of the money on Yes and 54% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 32 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 19 points.
Who holds it
58 wallets hold a position worth $3.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 58 of them. The largest Yes holder is DonkDaWarrior, with $399 on it, $6.6K lifetime loss over 48 markets (44% won). The largest No holder is 0x7F883cD0a3259D1BC640C0E19A72a0f2D6c7f76e-1791754063046, with $620 on it, $400 lifetime loss over 11 markets (55% won).
- Holders
- 36
- Money on it
- $1.2K
- Holders' win rate
- 49%
- Holders
- 22
- Money on it
- $2.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 55%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.2K on it
- 1DonkDaWarrior44% won of 48$399−$6.6K lifetime
- 2resilience2656% won of 3,262$286−$13K lifetime
- 3anoin12359% won of 1,608$134−$4.7M lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,230 · noise$90+$254K lifetime
- 5Cadmium36% won of 14$63+$432 lifetime
No$2.6K on it
- 10x7F883cD0a3259D1BC640C0E19A72a0f2D6c7f76e-179175406304655% won of 11$620−$400 lifetime
- 2AnonymousUsername70% won of 5,827 · whale$618+$417K lifetime
- 30x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393842% won of 9,618 · whale$573+$127K lifetime
- 4Haradwaith50% won of 53,882$418−$377K lifetime
- 5cigarettes46% won of 49,046$123−$49K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory
3 more- Paxton 3-6%$27K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Talarico 0-3%$24K vol.Yes 35%No 66%Smart money: No
- Talarico 3-6%$19K vol.Yes 25%No 76%Smart money: Yes
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%?"?
58 wallets hold a position worth $3.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 58 of them. The largest Yes holder is DonkDaWarrior, with $399 on it, $6.6K lifetime loss over 48 markets (44% won). The largest No holder is 0x7F883cD0a3259D1BC640C0E19A72a0f2D6c7f76e-1791754063046, with $620 on it, $400 lifetime loss over 11 markets (55% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 12¢ and No at 88¢, an 88% implied chance of No. $16K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
22% of the money on Yes and 54% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 32 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 19 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.