Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?”?
Smart money leans No: 94% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 22 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $27K traded all time
- Held now
- $11K by 65 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 73% 42 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 94% 22 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 10¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $27K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
73% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 22 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 17 points. A week ago, No by 18 points.
Who holds it
65 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 64 of them. The largest Yes holder is botbot, with $336 on it, $597K lifetime profit over 228 markets (89% won). The largest No holder is BuddhaYTorrance, with $2.4K on it, $61K lifetime profit over 87 markets (98% won).
- Holders
- 42
- Money on it
- $1.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 68%
- Holders
- 23
- Money on it
- $9.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 86%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.6K on it
- 1botbot89% won of 228 · whale$336+$597K lifetime
- 2macarena282% won of 214$220−$11K lifetime
- 3Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed56% won of 15,861 · whale$150+$163K lifetime
- 4sweetj64% won of 487 · whale$122+$11K lifetime
- 50x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393842% won of 9,618 · whale$107+$127K lifetime
No$9.1K on it
- 1BuddhaYTorrance98% won of 87 · whale$2.4K+$61K lifetime
- 2danypotter100% won of 50 · balanced$1.8K+$22K lifetime
- 30xc5c3…2c66no record yet$1.5K
- 4SAPolitcsSeer92% won of 83 · whale$1.4K+$64K lifetime
- 50x91c3…409f44% won of 430$789+$8.8K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory
3 more- Talarico 0-3%$24K vol.Yes 35%No 66%Smart money: No
- Talarico 3-6%$19K vol.Yes 25%No 76%Smart money: Yes
- Paxton 0-3%$16K vol.Yes 12%No 88%Smart money: No
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?"?
65 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 64 of them. The largest Yes holder is botbot, with $336 on it, $597K lifetime profit over 228 markets (89% won). The largest No holder is BuddhaYTorrance, with $2.4K on it, $61K lifetime profit over 87 markets (98% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 10¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $27K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
73% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 22 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 17 points. A week ago, No by 18 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.