Who's betting on “Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 84% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 12 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $41K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.7K by 98 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 72% 79 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 84% 19 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $41K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 1, 2026.
The smart money
72% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 12 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 6 points. A week ago, No by 29 points.
Who holds it
98 wallets hold a position worth $1.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 98 of them. The largest Yes holder is Pump, with $104 on it, $51K lifetime profit over 242 markets (29% won). The largest No holder is 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495, with $766 on it, $334K lifetime profit over 12,148 markets (23% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $19 on Yes.
- Holders
- 79
- Money on it
- $584
- Holders' win rate
- 44%
- Snipers
- 1 · $19
- Holders
- 19
- Money on it
- $1.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 34%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$584 on it
- 1Pump29% won of 242 · noise$104+$51K lifetime
- 2dreamland2679100% won of 1$53+$304 lifetime
- 3Wojtek15% won of 229 · noise$43+$55K lifetime
- 4MrBauer81% won of 120$33−$10K lifetime
- 50x3e59f2C319B3a0D9574FB94FB0045aEa801Db2be-176877069615958% won of 210$26−$38K lifetime
No$1.1K on it
- 10xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,148 · noise$766+$334K lifetime
- 2cigarettes46% won of 49,080$102−$49K lifetime
- 3LesterDiamond41% won of 3,957 · noise$73+$204K lifetime
- 40x238B208810031f7BC51cb9f420bc0703572244Eb-176968343415875% won of 321$39−$184 lifetime
- 5NovakPospisil100% won of 46$26+$27 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which company has the best AI model end of November?
9 more- Google$102K vol.Yes 71%No 30%Smart money split
- Anthropic$89K vol.Yes 27%No 74%Smart money: Yes
- DeepSeek$49K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Meta$38K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- SpaceXAI$34K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Alibaba$33K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Moonshot$32K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Z.ai$28K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Xiaomi$25K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$925K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$897K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$885K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$456K vol.Yes 42%No 59%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?"?
98 wallets hold a position worth $1.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 98 of them. The largest Yes holder is Pump, with $104 on it, $51K lifetime profit over 242 markets (29% won). The largest No holder is 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495, with $766 on it, $334K lifetime profit over 12,148 markets (23% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $41K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
72% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 12 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 6 points. A week ago, No by 29 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.