Who's betting on “Will National Dialogue Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 91% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 50 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $47K traded all time
- Held now
- $214 by 78 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 91% 59 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 40% 19 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $47K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on May 11, 2026.
The smart money
91% of the money on Yes and 40% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 50 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 50 points. A week ago, Yes by 52 points.
Who holds it
78 wallets hold a position worth $214 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 78 of them. The largest Yes holder is Jesuschristsuperstar, with $1 on it, $5.6K lifetime profit over 216 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is 0x0cA821A1929bCFefBB131E18FDb26C7e3E4Cd2CE-1734164073731, with $24 on it, $79 lifetime profit over 197 markets (97% won).
- Holders
- 59
- Money on it
- $4
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
- Holders
- 19
- Money on it
- $210
- Holders' win rate
- 96%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$4 on it
- 1Jesuschristsuperstar56% won of 216 · whale$1+$5.6K lifetime
- 2huyewell82% won of 261 · whale$1+$5.3K lifetime
- 3Poory74% won of 223 · whale$1+$28K lifetime
- 40xM11tsuki28% won of 282 · noise$0+$38K lifetime
- 5sciuboi60% won of 645 · whale$0+$246K lifetime
No$210 on it
- 10x0cA821A1929bCFefBB131E18FDb26C7e3E4Cd2CE-173416407373197% won of 197$24+$79 lifetime
- 20xBE111253dc5199C86F9387Ee4a7793ee3fE62032-173306853847195% won of 102$22−$77 lifetime
- 30x75E452891DB4d77C48836B1D8a2474D221889C28-173433959016098% won of 165$21−$60 lifetime
- 4FlashTradeOracleTester88% won of 251$20−$3.0K lifetime
- 50x4C54c395DFE8484D578BE426870b7A36E21e0413-173433958967399% won of 163$20−$25 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
12 more- Lebanese Forces (LF)$170K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)$81K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Amal Movement (Amal)$64K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- Hezbollah (Hezb)$57K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)$55K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Dignity Movement (DM)$29K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Mada Party (Mada)$28K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Khatt Ahmar$14K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana)$14K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Taqaddom Party$12K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath)$11K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)$11K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
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- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will National Dialogue Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?"?
78 wallets hold a position worth $214 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 78 of them. The largest Yes holder is Jesuschristsuperstar, with $1 on it, $5.6K lifetime profit over 216 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is 0x0cA821A1929bCFefBB131E18FDb26C7e3E4Cd2CE-1734164073731, with $24 on it, $79 lifetime profit over 197 markets (97% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will National Dialogue Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $47K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on May 11, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
91% of the money on Yes and 40% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 50 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 50 points. A week ago, Yes by 52 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on May 11, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.