Who's betting on “Will Free Patriotic Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 64% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 14 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $81K traded all time
- Held now
- $233 by 103 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 64% 77 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 50% 26 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $81K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on May 11, 2026.
The smart money
64% of the money on Yes and 50% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 14 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 13 points. A week ago, Yes by 15 points.
Who holds it
103 wallets hold a position worth $233 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 103 of them. The largest Yes holder is Poory, with $1 on it, $28K lifetime profit over 223 markets (74% won). The largest No holder is 38920, with $76 on it, $284 lifetime loss over 98 markets (51% won).
- Holders
- 77
- Money on it
- $4
- Holders' win rate
- 62%
- Holders
- 26
- Money on it
- $229
- Holders' win rate
- 76%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$4 on it
- 1Poory74% won of 223 · whale$1+$28K lifetime
- 2varch0168% won of 1,163$1−$45K lifetime
- 3huyewell82% won of 261 · whale$1+$5.3K lifetime
- 40xF373E8F57926aC71FD3d66D52Ac1bDdd187838ed-177721972879156% won of 209$1−$96 lifetime
- 5planktonXD76% won of 6,321 · whale$0+$132K lifetime
No$229 on it
- 13892051% won of 98$76−$284 lifetime
- 20x4Fa6E8423E119EeCfda5D62Ed3C48CAe7d03D7D4-173398936033398% won of 205 · grinder$40+$64 lifetime
- 30x239C8CB9fB15Dc198D5418D00997E08c384D2852-173425167915297% won of 186 · grinder$27+$33 lifetime
- 40x7350Ca35D503266cBe95C93E4b106df3E0B3f391-173322364036598% won of 193 · balanced$26+$142 lifetime
- 5FlashTradeOracleTester88% won of 251$20−$3.0K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
12 more- Lebanese Forces (LF)$170K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Amal Movement (Amal)$64K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- Hezbollah (Hezb)$57K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)$55K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- National Dialogue Party (NDP)$47K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Dignity Movement (DM)$29K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Mada Party (Mada)$28K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Khatt Ahmar$14K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana)$14K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Taqaddom Party$12K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath)$11K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)$11K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
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- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Free Patriotic Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?"?
103 wallets hold a position worth $233 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 103 of them. The largest Yes holder is Poory, with $1 on it, $28K lifetime profit over 223 markets (74% won). The largest No holder is 38920, with $76 on it, $284 lifetime loss over 98 markets (51% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Free Patriotic Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $81K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on May 11, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
64% of the money on Yes and 50% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 14 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 13 points. A week ago, Yes by 15 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on May 11, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.