Who's betting on “Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 74% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 5 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $170K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.6K by 173 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 74% 122 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 69% 49 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $170K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on May 11, 2026.
The smart money
74% of the money on Yes and 69% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 5 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 7 points.
Who holds it
173 wallets hold a position worth $1.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 171 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x9dd9…08bd, with $8 on it, $36K lifetime profit over 740 markets (16% won). The largest No holder is 2B9S, with $383 on it, $97K lifetime profit over 14,477 markets (27% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $2 on No.
- Holders
- 124
- Money on it
- $56
- Holders' win rate
- 51%
- Holders
- 49
- Money on it
- $1.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 63%
- Snipers
- 1 · $2
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$56 on it
- 10x9dd9…08bd16% won of 740 · noise$8+$36K lifetime
- 2jozeslemsek61% won of 410 · whale$7+$2.6K lifetime
- 3peepeepooppoop64% won of 1,563 · whale$4+$31K lifetime
- 4The10196% won of 205 · balanced$3+$557 lifetime
- 5sciuboi60% won of 645 · whale$2+$246K lifetime
No$1.5K on it
- 12B9S27% won of 14,477 · noise$383+$97K lifetime
- 2tttt12374% won of 214 · whale$199+$14K lifetime
- 3Salgrin100% won of 27$179+$149 lifetime
- 45atka60% won of 228 · whale$169+$9.9K lifetime
- 5FrankyFourFingers69% won of 264$154−$7.0K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
12 more- Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)$81K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Amal Movement (Amal)$64K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- Hezbollah (Hezb)$57K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)$55K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- National Dialogue Party (NDP)$47K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Dignity Movement (DM)$29K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Mada Party (Mada)$28K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Khatt Ahmar$14K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana)$14K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Taqaddom Party$12K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath)$11K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)$11K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?"?
173 wallets hold a position worth $1.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 171 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x9dd9…08bd, with $8 on it, $36K lifetime profit over 740 markets (16% won). The largest No holder is 2B9S, with $383 on it, $97K lifetime profit over 14,477 markets (27% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $170K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on May 11, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
74% of the money on Yes and 69% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 5 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 7 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on May 11, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.