Who's betting on “Will Hezbollah win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?”?
Smart money leans No: 83% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 14 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $57K traded all time
- Held now
- $186 by 107 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 68% 84 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 83% 23 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $57K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on May 11, 2026.
The smart money
68% of the money on Yes and 83% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 14 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 6 points.
Who holds it
107 wallets hold a position worth $186 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 107 of them. The largest Yes holder is jozeslemsek, with $2 on it, $2.6K lifetime profit over 410 markets (61% won). The largest No holder is gpunfv1, with $55 on it, $1.3K lifetime profit over 206 markets (84% won).
- Holders
- 84
- Money on it
- $4
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
- Holders
- 23
- Money on it
- $182
- Holders' win rate
- 85%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$4 on it
- 1jozeslemsek61% won of 410 · whale$2+$2.6K lifetime
- 2abchrufi46% won of 102$0−$2.4K lifetime
- 3Jesuschristsuperstar56% won of 216 · whale$0+$5.6K lifetime
- 40xB424497CD2318A1AeE67629b61805Ec0B13FEd66-1780062252849no record yet$0+$0 lifetime
- 5cryptolion1603100% won of 3$0−$94 lifetime
No$182 on it
- 1gpunfv184% won of 206 · balanced$55+$1.3K lifetime
- 288mnm88100% won of 215 · whale$38+$12K lifetime
- 3Elias.Thornwell69% won of 3,136 · whale$33+$560 lifetime
- 4FlashTradeOracleTester88% won of 251$20−$3.0K lifetime
- 5tomato226100% won of 201$11+$32 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
12 more- Lebanese Forces (LF)$170K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)$81K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Amal Movement (Amal)$64K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)$55K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- National Dialogue Party (NDP)$47K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Dignity Movement (DM)$29K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Mada Party (Mada)$28K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Khatt Ahmar$14K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana)$14K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Taqaddom Party$12K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath)$11K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)$11K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Hezbollah win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?"?
107 wallets hold a position worth $186 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 107 of them. The largest Yes holder is jozeslemsek, with $2 on it, $2.6K lifetime profit over 410 markets (61% won). The largest No holder is gpunfv1, with $55 on it, $1.3K lifetime profit over 206 markets (84% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Hezbollah win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $57K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on May 11, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
68% of the money on Yes and 83% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 14 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 6 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on May 11, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.