Who's betting on “Will Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 81% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 14 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $11K traded all time
- Held now
- $52 by 76 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 81% 63 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 67% 13 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $11K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on May 11, 2026.
The smart money
81% of the money on Yes and 67% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 14 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 14 points. A week ago, Yes by 15 points.
Who holds it
76 wallets hold a position worth $52 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 76 of them. The largest Yes holder is HolyMoses7, with $1 on it, $179K lifetime profit over 1,503 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is Lindsayoynbee, with $10 on it, $1 lifetime profit over 195 markets (58% won).
- Holders
- 63
- Money on it
- $4
- Holders' win rate
- 51%
- Holders
- 13
- Money on it
- $48
- Holders' win rate
- 88%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$4 on it
- 1HolyMoses753% won of 1,503 · whale$1+$179K lifetime
- 2x5w6n31% won of 232$1−$2.1K lifetime
- 30xM11tsuki28% won of 282 · noise$0+$38K lifetime
- 4huyewell82% won of 261 · whale$0+$5.3K lifetime
- 5seastar73% won of 200 · balanced$0+$53 lifetime
No$48 on it
- 1Lindsayoynbee58% won of 195 · balanced$10+$1 lifetime
- 20xMoore100% won of 26 · grinder$10+$15 lifetime
- 3coolben98% won of 201 · whale$9+$984 lifetime
- 4sZcxxzv100% won of 200$5−$2 lifetime
- 50x9b52…7971100% won of 278$5−$16 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
12 more- Lebanese Forces (LF)$170K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)$81K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Amal Movement (Amal)$64K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- Hezbollah (Hezb)$57K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)$55K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- National Dialogue Party (NDP)$47K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Dignity Movement (DM)$29K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Mada Party (Mada)$28K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Khatt Ahmar$14K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana)$14K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Taqaddom Party$12K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)$11K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?"?
76 wallets hold a position worth $52 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 76 of them. The largest Yes holder is HolyMoses7, with $1 on it, $179K lifetime profit over 1,503 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is Lindsayoynbee, with $10 on it, $1 lifetime profit over 195 markets (58% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $11K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on May 11, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
81% of the money on Yes and 67% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 14 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 14 points. A week ago, Yes by 15 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on May 11, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.