Who's betting on “Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 69% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 40 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $64K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.2K by 111 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 69% 66 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 29% 45 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $64K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on May 11, 2026.
The smart money
69% of the money on Yes and 29% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 40 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 40 points. A week ago, Yes by 32 points.
Who holds it
111 wallets hold a position worth $1.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 111 of them. The largest Yes holder is oliman2, with $33 on it, $106K lifetime profit over 1,228 markets (64% won). The largest No holder is 0xB1973A4c1edA59307dBC495a4BC384f77cDe6968-1780833529951, with $355 on it, $4.8K lifetime loss over 201 markets (66% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $84 on No.
- Holders
- 66
- Money on it
- $168
- Holders' win rate
- 58%
- Holders
- 45
- Money on it
- $983
- Holders' win rate
- 72%
- Snipers
- 1 · $84
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$168 on it
- 1oliman264% won of 1,228 · whale$33+$106K lifetime
- 2peepeepooppoop64% won of 1,566 · whale$21+$33K lifetime
- 3rocky4202452% won of 900 · whale$20+$24K lifetime
- 40x9BBD88140CcBA06100DA00476257d9cffCE56e72-177150851187252% won of 213 · balanced$20+$40K lifetime
- 50xd8CB248F9452C8D9df2C903B3290B950A79aA008-177236829802645% won of 189$12−$2.5K lifetime
No$983 on it
- 10xB1973A4c1edA59307dBC495a4BC384f77cDe6968-178083352995166% won of 201$355−$4.8K lifetime
- 2qcp273% won of 251 · whale$124+$1.3K lifetime
- 3p3eFbv0H3b61% won of 205$90−$1.5K lifetime
- 4TheOne77793% won of 381 · sniper$84+$16K lifetime
- 5MIRKO82% won of 17$69−$553 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
12 more- Lebanese Forces (LF)$170K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)$81K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Hezbollah (Hezb)$57K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)$55K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- National Dialogue Party (NDP)$47K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Dignity Movement (DM)$29K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Mada Party (Mada)$28K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Khatt Ahmar$14K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana)$14K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Taqaddom Party$12K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath)$11K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)$11K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?"?
111 wallets hold a position worth $1.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 111 of them. The largest Yes holder is oliman2, with $33 on it, $106K lifetime profit over 1,228 markets (64% won). The largest No holder is 0xB1973A4c1edA59307dBC495a4BC384f77cDe6968-1780833529951, with $355 on it, $4.8K lifetime loss over 201 markets (66% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $64K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on May 11, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
69% of the money on Yes and 29% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 40 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 40 points. A week ago, Yes by 32 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on May 11, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.